10/03/2023
FACTS THAT WILL MAKE TINUBU WIN IN COURT AND MAKE ATIKU AND OBI LOSE OUTRIGHTLY
By Sunday adelaja
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The main Argument that both Obi and Atiku are pursuing in court is that the elections were rigged. The worst thing that could happen against Tinubu in court is that the court will cancel the results of the elections in those particular polling units where rigging have been established.
Before I go on to prove my point why Tinubu will emerge victorious in court battles, let me state categorically what my beliefs are in regards to these past elections.
I personally believe that there were irregularities or even outright rigging in some parts of the nation. Although if compared to all elections since our return to democracy I strongly believe these are our best elections by far. These riggings in my belief were perpetrated by adherents of all the leading political parties. I don’t personally think that the head of these parties were involved in the malpractices, it’s physically impossible for any one of them to know what each and every one of their followers were doing behind their back.
Nevertheless, I don’t think that the irregularities by any of the parties are enough to alter the end result of the elections, in my personal observations I think the will of the people was expressed in the results that INEC declared.
I actually think all major political parties believe in this too. If not they won’t have gone ahead to accept the certificates of elections issued by INEC to their senators and House of Representatives members.
Atiku and Obi are smart people, they know they better accept the positions in parliament now before they completely lose out after the court proceedings. Both Atiku and Obi failed to win 25%, in 2/3 of our 36 states, which means only Tinubu is qualified by our constitution to become president even if Obi or Atiku get 100 million votes added to their present votes. They’ll still not be qualified to become president unless they cover 2/3 of our country. Which unfortunately they failed to get. So these gentlemen know they don’t stand a chance, I assume that going to court for them isn’t for victory, it’s more to palate their followers and to save face.
If you doubt the credibility of the elections why accept the results that the same INEC declared in favor of your parties at parliament level elections. There is a lot of hypocrisy exposed right there.
Let’s now assume that these parties are only disputing the presidential elections, then I’ll challenge them that a simple analysis of the parliamentary elections will also show us who won the presidential elections. Out of 98 senators that were elected alongside the president 57 senators were from APC, the rest belong to 7 other parties. Of 325 representatives elected APC has 162. Again the rest are shared by the other 7 parties. If you just calculate which party truly controls the heart and soul of Nigeria, it’s obvious that it’s APC.
It’s only logical that most of these people who voted for these APC parliamentarians also voted for the APC presidential flag bearer. A rather simple logic. In countries with a parliamentary system it’ll be these people who will elect the head of government, in this case they won’t even need a coalition with any other party.
Another point that renders useless the attempt by other parties to go to court is that, let’s assume that the court overturns the elections results and installs either Atiku or Obi.
What do you think will follow?
Your guess is as good as mine, with a simple majority votes in both chambers of parliament the APC will easily impeach the President or at least paralyze the function and running of government.
It therefore makes no sense at all for Atiku or Obi to try to retake the presidency without a control of the parliament.
Now, let’s go back to my main argument in this article, which is the fact that Atiku and Obi are surely going to lose the court battles.
Like I said earlier, the worse thing the court could do is to cancel elections where Tinubu won or had a considerable advantage. My point is even if this happens, still Tinubu will remain the President.
Do you know that if the court finds APC guilty and decides to remove Bola Tinubu’s total vote from all of Southwest which equals over two million votes (2,279,107) from Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo and Ekiti States, Tinubu will still remain President. Of course this is an extreme scenario I’m painting here, which will not happen by any means.
But even if it happens, Tinubu will still remain President.
Remember that the total votes Tinubu got is over 8 million votes, specifically 8,794,726. So if all the votes from his stronghold of Southwest is removed from him Bola Tinubu will still be left with 6,515,619 far higher than Peter Obi’s total votes of 6,101,533.
Someone could say, yes Tinubu’s votes are still more than that of Obi but not more than those of Atiku so Atiku would probably be declared the President. No sir, remember whenever an election is annulled it doesn’t only affect the guilty party, all parties in that polling unit lose all their votes likewise. So if the Southwest election results are disallowed it’ll be the same for PDP, Labour etc.
Now let’s look at what happens if the votes in the Southeast are found to be rigged, then Peter Obi loses out completely, because those results are his main votes, while Tinubu’s position only gets stronger. If the elections in Atiku’s stronghold are found to be compromised and the votes are canceled, Atiku and Obi will still be the losers, while Tinubu will still win and remain the President of Nigeria.