20/07/2020
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam promises to bring great benefits to Ethiopia. It is Africa’s largest and, when complete, promises to be Africa’s biggest producer of electricity. For Ethiopians the dam is a national pride and a sovereign right, paid for by Ethiopians through national bonds. With an electricity generation capacity of 6000 MW, it will feed the power-hungry, fast-expanding Ethiopian economy. Politically, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed considers the completion and operation of the dam as a necessary deliverable to win the next presidential election.
But, the dam sits on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River, a lifeblood for Egyptian vitality since ancient times. For Egypt, control over the flow of Nile water is a matter of utmost national security. Egyptian farming communities depend, like they have for thousands of years, on the regular flow of the Nile water for irrigation. The High Aswan Dam will be suffer as water meant to replenish its reservoir will diverted by the GERD. And Cairo, with its 9.5 million people depends on the water from the Nile. A water crisis in Egypt could add to social tensions in the country and may destabilize the regime.
Climate change, fast-growing populations, and environmental degradation will make conflict more likely. Egypt may also have to face construction of dams by other countries on the White Nile. What can Egypt to prepare for the worst? Ethiopia is unlikely to back down or to submit to agreements that may be seen as violating its sovereignty. In light of this, Is it possible for the countries of the region to reverse the zero-sum dynamic around the GERD? Can Egypt and Ethiopia reach an agreement that would satisfy all parties? If so, would this agreement hold? What role for the UN Security Council? The African Union? The United States and other outside powers? To answer these questions and more we are joined by three distinguished panelists.
Ambassador David Shinn
Foreign Service Officer with US Department of State for 37 years, including assignments as ambassador to Burkina Faso and Ethiopia and Deputy chief of mission to Sudan. Teaching since 2001 in Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. He is the author of, among other books, Historical Dictionary of Ethiopia.
Hafsa Halawa
Hafsa Halawa is a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and an independent consultant working on political, social and economic affairs, and development goals across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Horn of Africa regions. A former corporate lawyer, Halawa has held positions in government, the UN, INGOs/NGOs, corporate multinationals, private firms, and think tanks. She now consults independently for a similar broad set of clients on a variety of issues, at request.
Addisu Lash*tew
is a David M. Rubenstein Fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution. He has previously held postdoctoral researcher positions at Erasmus University Rotterdam (The Netherlands) and Simon Fraser University (Canada). Lash*tew’s research interest spans various topics in development economics, including firm growth and productivity, resource allocation, and economic diversification. His most recent research has looked into market-based corporate approaches toward sustainable development and poverty alleviation. He has actively published on the topics of financial inclusion, social innovation, inclusive business strategies, sustainable finance, and Base of the Pyramid strategies. Lash*tew maintains teaching and research affiliations with the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) in Nairobi, and the School of Commerce of Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia.
WEDNESDAY JULY 15 AT 11 AM EST
