Valuabl

15/08/2023

Turning over rocks is vital to investment success. But there are 47,000 stocks worldwide—too many to go through individually, and screens suck.

I use a simple model and consensus estimates to value each listed company every fortnight. Then, I pick the cheapest and start there.

13/08/2023

Stock prices have been rising. The S&P 500, an index of big American companies, is up 10% since April.

But intrinsic values haven't kept up, and stocks are now slightly overvalued.

I expect a correction soon.

11/08/2023

Apart from the pandemic, Australia hasn't had a recession for 30 years. But rate hikes have come thick and fast, and some economists think a downturn is coming. They're right. Australia will probably go into recession next year as the surplus and higher rates hurt demand.

11/08/2023

Australia will probably go into recession next year; How to use the Kelly method to optimise your portfolio; Stocks are overvalued; Value in luxury perfumes and moisturisers

If you're a follower, get 40%-off an annual subscription to Valuabl by clicking this link: bit.ly/43ZDsU8

14/04/2022

Housing Market Mania

Preview of 's cartoon in tomorrow's issue of Valuabl.

Valuabl is an independent, value-oriented journal of financial markets. Delivered fortnightly, Valuabl helps contrarians pop bubbles, buy low, and sell high.

Sign up now at www.valuabl.substack.com

01/04/2022

The cost of adultery crisis.

01/04/2022

Working from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue

01/04/2022

Dinner with the Putins

01/04/2022

30/12/2021

I am considering turning all my housing market research into a book and would like to include other people's stories and thoughts.

If you would like to be interviewed and contribute your thoughts, please DM me.

30/12/2021

If I sold you a money printing machine, would you think about how much money it has produced in the past? Or, would you think about how much money it will print in the future?

29/12/2021

"The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers."

— Edgar R. Fiedler

29/12/2021

Investors in 1950: This stock is trading at a PE

28/12/2021

We invest against the current opportunity cost. Not the past, nor the future. Don't forget it.

28/12/2021

Some investors and pundits expect rate rises next year to collapse the stock market. I argue that these people don't understand the numerator side of intrinsic value. Rates rise because of higher current and expected nominal growth.

27/12/2021

"Patience is the most necessary quality for business, many a man would rather you heard his story than grant his request."

— Lord Chesterfield

27/12/2021

In the U.S., there are 15.2 million empty habitable homes. This is almost 11% of the total habitable housing stock (142.1 million). Yet, the country has 554,000 homeless.

There is no shortage of housing resource. There is a resource allocation problem.

26/12/2021

When I say we're in a housing bubble, people get so angry that you would think I had just kicked their dog.

26/12/2021

Put down your phone, turn off the news, and read a 10-k.

25/12/2021

The idea that overpaying for stocks makes sense because "otherwise you'll miss out on the next big thing" is ridiculously dumb.

25/12/2021

I suspect there is a correlation between how lazy an investor is, and how good their returns are.

Do less. Focus on what matters. Profit.

24/12/2021

Sometimes I wonder what would happen if Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett started a fund together...

24/12/2021

Rule: I know less about everything than I think I do.
Response: Diversify and have a huge margin-of-safety.

23/12/2021

Low or negative interest rates 𝗱𝗼 𝗻𝗼𝘁 mean intrinsic values go to infinity.

23/12/2021

All volatility is risk, but not all risk is volatility.

22/12/2021

If Fed announcements mean you're changing your portfolio, then your margin-of-safety isn't large enough.

22/12/2021

I write a newsletter for value investors with deep dives on the best ideas I've found.

The next issue comes out tomorrow. I've found a profitable, debt-free business with an EV

21/12/2021

Q: How much would you pay me for a duffle bag with $1M in cash inside?
..

I'm confident that you didn't imagine whether the price of "duffle bags of cash" would go up or down. Treat stocks like you would duffle bags of cash.

21/12/2021

Price ≠ Value

20/12/2021

We can sit here and trade Beanie Babies back and forth at higher and higher prices. We'll feel richer in the process, but we're not.