The Deliberation

26/06/2024

India is at the threshold of a major structural shift in its growth trajectory, moving towards 8% GDP growth in a sustained manner. During the last three years, India’s GDP has been rising by an average of 8.3% on the back of critical reforms. The biggest growth driver was the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and introduction of the insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and launch of flexible inflation targeting model.

- Shaktikanta Das, RBI Governor

The biggest growth driver, Das said, was the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and introduction of the insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and launch of flexible inflation targeting model.

20/06/2024

Out of 14 PLI schemes, only 1 PLI scheme (smartphones) has succeeded in the delivering the desired results!

In 13 PLI scheme sectors, companies have made investments worth Rs 1.07 trillion against an outlay of over Rs 2 trillion. Of the expected incremental sales target of Rs 40 trillion, just 17% has been achieved till December 2023. Similarly, of the direct employment potential of 1.15 million, around 43% has been achieved.

Why?

The answer needs to be found.

This article does come with a possible answer; if not the exact one!

"One-size-fits-all" approach has failed these schemes to fail. There is need for tailored PLI schemes; the way it was tailored in case of smartphones!

A one-size-fits-all approach is the reason why 13 of the 14 PLI schemes don’t have much to showcase

13/06/2024

Human civilization has flourished over centuries on the basis of cooperation and social relationships.
But this is America, a dreamland for millions. As you start aging from teenage to old age in the USA, you start becoming more alone and lonely!
Is this choice? Or forced on people culturally?

13/06/2024

Retail food inflation remained flat at 8.69% on year in May 2024 compared with 8.7% in April.

This is expected to remain high in next few months as vegetable prices with cereal prices would the retail foo inflation elevated in the Indian economy.

For long time, retail food inflation has remained on higher side; never in the comfort zone; pushing the general prices upward. This problem is not just seasonal.

Is this a problem relating to the economic structure?

Is India not able produce enough food for its ever increasing population?

Index up 8.69% in May

12/06/2024

As per World Bank's June Global Economic Prospects report, India is expected to expand with a steady but moderate average annual growth of 6.7% between FY25 and FY27.

"Pace of expansion to moderate between FY25-FY27, due to slowdown in investment from a high base"

12/06/2024

Apple iPhone export in April-May 2024 has been $2.6 billion achieving 25% of annual target in 2 months. This is really impressive for Indian manufacturing sector. But the question is, whether India can use this to build supply chains in other segments of mobile manufacturing as well as electronics products.

PLI scheme has been relatively successful in improving manufacturing activities in India than the earlier experiences and it it is good.

Is India ready to increase manufacturing capacity with help of PLI scheme in other sectors too?

Would the new coalition government be able to implement key reforms?

11/06/2024

Will this bring a change in his attitude towards India? Its too early to say anything! Hope Maldives and its government realizes that opposition to India will yield nothing but losses.

The Maldives government readout noted that President Muizzu is committed to preserving the close and historic ties with India and looks forward to further strengthening the existing relations between the two countries.

09/06/2024

As per the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2022-23 inequality in India in terms of consumption across households has declined in the past decade.

The Gini coefficient fell to 0.266 in 2022-23 from 0.283 in 2011-12, for rural households; and for urban ones, it fell to 0.314 from 0.363.

The Gini coefficient score lies between 0 and 1, where complete equality would result in a score of zero and complete inequality would result in 1.

The rural average monthly consumption spending per person had increased to Rs 3,773 per month in 2022-23 from Rs 1,430 per person in 2011-12; and urban average monthly consumption expenditure per person had risen to Rs 6,459 in 2022-23 from Rs 2,630 per person in 2011-12.

03/06/2024

According to the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by S&P Global, manufacturing PMI fell from 58.8 in April to 57.5 in May, signalling a slower but still substantial improvement in the health of the sector.

According to the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by S&P Global, manufacturing PMI fell from 58.8 in April to 57.5 in May, signalling a slower but still substantial improvement in the health of the sector.

03/06/2024

Hope that by the end of his third tenure in 2029:
1. India would $7-8 trillion economy.
2. Most of the people out of poverty.
3. Per capita income doubles.
4. India is completely dependent and net exporter of electronics.

03/06/2024

Would it be possible to have battery less devices?

Is future going to be battery free?

If this happens, that would be perhaps the best thing to happen as then the solar energy would really become a green and sustainable source of energy.

The present lithium battery based system solar as well as all the devices is highly polluting and risky and completely against the basic principles of cyclical economy not aligned to UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).

Harvesting energy from any light source – even a candle – a new generation of ultra-durable and flexible solar cells means devices never need charging. ‘Our grandchildren will laugh that we had cables,’ one industry pioneer tells Anthony Cuthbertson

02/06/2024

Markets are governed by greed and fear. The exit polls just drove out the fear which is clearly mirrored in the market volatility.
Now fear is gone, is time for greed!
Market might wait till 4th June before it start upward trajectory.
Tomorrow market will rejoice.

02/06/2024

The problem is the use of huge amounts of pesticides and fertilizers in India is not evenly spread but it is getting worse day by day irrespective from hill areas to plains. Everywhere, there is heavy use of pesticides and fertilizers to get the maximum yield and it's causing damage to the ground water. Even in the villages, one cannot drink tap water. Diseases like Cancer are on the rise.

So we are in a huge mess and risking our future.

a large part of the world is using huge amounts of the pesticide to increase agricultural production. In some countries the average use of pesticide

02/06/2024

Are we sliding towards national water crisis in India?
Water levels in the country’s 150 major reservoirs fell sharply to 23% below the previous year’s level, due to deficient monsoon last season, scanty rainfall in winter months and prolonged heat waves in several parts of the country in the last two months.

Barely a quarter of capacity filled; south dams being replenished with monsoon progress

02/06/2024

The real GDP in the Indian economy is expected to grow at 8.2% in fiscal year 2023-24. It is higher than previous year's growth rate.

01/06/2024

GST collection rises 10% to ₹1.73 lakh crore in May 2024, gross GST revenue up 15.3% YoY.






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The growth in GST collections was driven by an increase in revenues from domestic transactions (up 15.3 per cent) over the slowing of imports (down 4.3 per cent)

01/06/2024

It is an initiative in aimed at democratizing credit access and fostering innovation in the financial ecosystem. It is a kind of a virtual credit marketplace which brings distributors, lenders, and borrowers together in one location.

Government of India launched Open Credit Enablement Network (OCEN) bringing distributors, lenders, and borrowers together in financial ecosystem

01/06/2024

The government of India launched the Open Credit Enablement Network (OCEN). OCEN is a set of standards that creates a framework for small-ticket financing with a brief tenure by enabling distant lenders to conduct business in remote areas and permitting access to data from other sources. It will become a virtual credit marketplace by bringing distributors, lenders, and borrowers together in one location.

Small businesses face many challenges in securing finances from institutions. While MSMEs provide over 30% of GDP growth .

23/05/2024

Businesses are not punching bags but politics has turned it into one!

Wealth creators will feel welcome only if they aren’t always used as pawns for political mud-slinging.

21/05/2024

In the times when the call for de-dollarization is on rise, friendshoring is becoming trademark in global trade along with global trade in local currencies, the weakness in dollar will accelerate the process as the growth in the USA economy falls.

Volatility is again falling but it may be showing signs of another trough. If this is confirmed in the next few weeks, we could see another turning point.

20/05/2024

“Even if India is the fastest growing economy in the G20, it is also the poorest country. Young people are coming into the labour force in massive quantities. If we could employ them, India would grow much faster." - Raghuram Rajan

Whenever Raghuram sir puts his political side on backseat, he is mostly right.

Raghuram Rajan recently asked a thought-provoking question: Will the demographic dividend lead to a rich India, or will the country face the burden of an ageing population? He says India's performance on the global scale seems good compared to rich countries.

19/05/2024

Good perspective on climate change and food security in India.
India needs to act before it is too late!

Path forward is clear: cut greenhouse gases, foster greener agriculture, harness new tech.

19/05/2024

In urban India, the unemployment rate for those between 15-29 years of age is 2.5 times higher at 17% than the overall rate of 6.7%, according to NSSO’s latest quarterly periodic labour force survey for January-March 2024.

Though, it may look unpopular but it needs to attended. For the next government, it should be in the list of first priorities.

It should also be noted that the reason for high unemployment is not only lack of opportunity but the attitude of youth and society too. In India, job simply means government job. This must change. Rather than wasting years in unending waiting for the government jobs, the youth should start looking for employment opportunities in private sector.

The top priority of the new government must be to generate more job opportunities.

17/05/2024

This article tells about important aspect of telecom practices and policies in India. If 6GHz spectrum is good for the nation, it must be introduced as connectivity in old buildings is really a big issue faced by everyone.

India stands to lose out on socioeconomic benefits flowing from licence-exempt 6 GHz usage due to the continued stonewalling of its allocation

17/05/2024

US inflation resumes downward trend, eases to 0.3% in April; core cools for first time in 6 months

US inflation: In the 12 months through April 2024, the CPI increased 3.4 per cent, which follows a 3.5 per cent rise in March, according to US govt data.

14/05/2024

India needs to be proactive before it is too late in dealing with cheap Chinese products. The Indian market is already a dumping ground for a large numbers of Chinese products (a range of low tech to high tech products). If China succeeds in dumping electric vehicles and chips in India, the possible growth in EV sector and chip production would be hampered beyond imaginations and India cannot afford this dependency on China in these key sectors.

Higher duties on Chinese face masks, syringes and needles, medical gloves and natural graphite provides a significant opportunity for India, GTRI also added

13/05/2024

The export of made in India iPhone mobile handset has increased from $580 millions in 2022-23 to $1.1 billion in 2023-24. The export of iPhone is expected to hit $14 billion (₹1 Lakh crore) in 2024-25.

13/05/2024

As a matter of fact, most of the non-BJP ruled states are charging higher on petroleum products than the ruled states. As a result, the oil prices are higher in Non-BJP ruled states.

As a matter of fact, most of the non-BJP ruled states are charging higher VAT on petroleum products than the BJP ruled states. Rajeev Upadhyay

13/05/2024

Agricultural exports in FY24 declined by 8% to $48.9 billion from $53.2 billion in FY23. Not only this, but the growth momentum in agricultural exports during the 10 years of the Modi government have gone down an annual average growth rate of 20% during the UPA period (FY05-FY14) to a meagre 1.9% during FY15-24.

Competitiveness hinges on productivity boost & achieving more with less resources.

12/05/2024

Justin Trudeau, the Canadian PM is hell bent on using the Khalistani separatists for his political stunts just to influence his voters in Canada ignoring the fact that Canada has to the prices in future! This price wouldn’t be just limited to domestic issues but internationally it earning a bad name.

Already TD Bank, a major American National bank in Canada, has been caught and fined by the regulators for money laundering of the proceeds from drugs trade.

If the Justin Trudeau government keep on supporting bad elements in Canada, things would turned even more scary.

Amardeep Singh is accused of first-degree murder and murderous conspiracy