27/12/2023
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KUKI-MEITEI CONFLICT: END OF INSURGENCY IN MANIPUR ?
*Part -1*
*By Hingchaba Meitei*
Background of the Insurgency movement:
Manipur remained independent until 1947 when the British left India. Maharaja Bodh Chandra relinquished his monarchy and instituted a new constitution, the first of its kind in India “Manipur Constitution Act, 1947”. An election was held in 1948, and elected Manipur State Assembly was inaugurated by the maharaja on October 18, 1948. On 18 Sep 1949, the governor of Assam presented “Merger Agreement,” to the Maharaj at Shillong whereby Manipur would be merged with India. Maharaja Bodh Chandra was asked to sign the “Merger Agreement,” which he refused and instead he told that he will discuss the matter with his council of ministers. The maharaja was placed under house arrest and was forced to sign the Merger Agreement, on 21 Sep 1949. On 15 Oct 1949 an executive order was passed dissolving the Manipur state assembly and the elected council of ministers. Hijam Irabot Singh, a member of the dissolved council could not attend the first meeting of the Manipur Legislative Assembly held on 18 Oct 1948 because of a warrant against him, where he was accused for lost of life of a police officer at Imphal. After Manipur was merged with India, Irabot formed an underground Communist Party of Manipur on 29 Oct 1948 and carried out independence struggle against the government. He died on 26 September 1951 at the foothills of the Ango Hills. Irabot sowed the seeds of protest then, it germinated into full-blown insurgency by the early 1960s.
The emergence of armed insurgency in Manipur dates back to 1964 with the formation of the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), which still remains one of the formidable militant outfits. Which now is under two fraction, one fraction lead by Pambei, under a ceasefire/peace talk with the govt recently in Dec 2023, another fraction let by Yaimachou is still active and is working with the Myanmar Army in supressing the Pro Democratic movement of Myanmar. The rise of separatist insurgency in Manipur mainly attributed to perceived discontent over alleged “forced” merger of Manipur with the Union of India and the subsequent delay in granting it full-fledged statehood. While the erstwhile Kingdom of Manipur was merged with India on October 15, 1949 as state above, it became a state only in 1972. The later years saw a slew of militant outfits being formed, including the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), and Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), among others. These valley-based outfits have been demanding an independent Manipur.
Thuingaleng Muivah, the present General Secretary of NSCN (I-M) was the youngest leader of NNC who joined the organisation in 1964. This was the time when Naga insurgency entered Manipur, and the Meitei insurgency had also started. In 1980, five years after the Shillong Accord was signed between NNC and Government of India where it accepted the Indian Constitution, following sustained military pressure from the Indian government, the NSCN broke away from the NNC. NSCN manifesto of the new party reflected Maoist jargon, rejecting a multi-party system and emphasising the “dictatorship of the people through a revolutionary organisation”, besides the liberation of Nagas from the “exploiting class”.
The Naga movement in neighbouring Nagaland spilled over into Manipur’s hill districts with the NSCN-IM controlling most of it while pressing for “Nagalim” (Greater Nagaland), which is perceived by Meiteis as a “threat” to Manipur’s “territorial integrity” and for the Kukis as a threat to their perceived land as the claimed land of NSCN was in clash to the land claimed by the Kukis. The NSCN-IM entered a ceasefire agreement with the Government of India (GoI) in 1997, now the present stand is discussion and negotiation on the Naga Framework agreement.
Kuki National Front (KNF), Kuki National Army (KNA) was formed in, 1988 primarily to counter the NSCN-IM hegemony in the Kuki-inhabited areas and also to demand a KukiLand. Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA) was formed in 1997 generally to counter the Kuki during Kuki-Paite clash. The issue of Kuki Paite or Zo is still there however it is now in backburn as the Meitei-Kuki conflict is in forefront. The pressure upon Kukis to be under the banner and dominance of Zomi or Zo United and asking for Zogram instead of Kukiland is another conflict in waiting. Then there are many other Kuki, Zo groups now, generally due to the Kuki-Naga conflict of 1990s and also due to fractional fight. By 2002/3 the Military and intelligence agency were in touch with the Kuki insurgents, at ground level operations had stopped against the Kuki and infact the Army heavily dependent on the Kuki insurgents to move in and flush out the Valley insurgents during Operation All Clear 2003/4 at Sajik Tampak. The claimed liberated Zone was attacked by Indian Army in a proper conventional war method using heavy artillery and troops moving in battle formation. ultimately by 2004/5 the complete area was cleared of all meitei insurgents. There after negotiation for official ceasefire was in progress with the Govt.
The Kuki outfits under two umbrella groups, the Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and United People’s Front (UPF), signed the tripartite Suspension of Operation (SoO) pacts with the GoI and Manipur on August 22, 2008. Of the total 25 armed Kuki groups operating in the state, 17 are under the KNO and 8 under the United Peoples’ Front (UPF).
*Part-2*
Past and present
During the 90s and after, Kuki dominate areas in Manipur were the hideout and strong hold the VBIG, the Naga areas were a no go for them. Chandel, Churchandpur were the hub of VBIG as it was bordering Myanmar where the VBIG could slip away easily after carrying out attack. The Kuki UG groups like KNA, KNF etc had strong nexus with VBIG and NSCN K and other groups of NE except the UKLF and KRA which enjoy a shadow support of NSCN IM, the Moreh town as we know was once a baston of KNA but later UKLF entered and took up part of KNA areas with the support of NSCN and some military Gererals. Like UKLF, KRA was also nurtured by NSCN IM and were active in saikul and Kangpokpi area and with UKLF had fractional fight with KNA.
In Ccpur and chandel areas the VBIG had proclaimed certain areas as liberated zone and was administering it. Those area were so poor and under developed that the people happily accepted them as they were giving certain welfare measures like medical camps, pay for logistic support, educations etc. however the real govt machinery did not function and it remain the poorest of the poor area in the whole country. The villagers were made to depend on the VBIG for everything. There were no sign of any development and by 2004 Operation All Clear was launched by the Army, the villagers were unhappy after the VBIG were driven out. Now with passing of time, roads, electricity, and welfare scheme started to reach the people and they don’t want the insurgents to come back again. The villagers are also not happy with the present Kuki insurgents as they run free in the areas because of the SoO agreement.
In the valley areas, youth away from the main Imphal city joined in large number and they were made to believe that Manipur will be liberated from the Indian Union. There were rampant loots, extortion, bombing, killing, kidnapping and intimidation. People were tired and fed-up but no one dared to speak. By 2012, violence reduced and so does the insurgency level. Slowly people started to enjoy a life of peace and normalcy. Shops and people gathering started to happen till late night. Development started to be seen on ground and people were getting benefits from the govt welfare schemes.
In the hills, there were few clash of fractional fight, UKLF/KRA and KNA, ZRA and KNF, NSCN and ZUF etc, by 2007, under the patronage of PLA, MNRF were established by deserters from NSCN mostly from Tamenglong and south Ukhrul. MNPF (MNRF) had been part of many attack on the security forces along with VBIG latest being ambush on CO of 36 Assam Rifle by MNPF and PLA. However, except for few fractional fights, the hills were relatively peaceful where NSCN IM controls the Naga areas. Extortion on Highway is rampant by both Naga and Kuki UG, the burden however was being borne by the common people. There were Economic Blockade on and off by vested interested CSO and organisation, chocking and putting the public at ransom.
With public support also waning, most VBIG groups are now restricted to their hideouts in the jungles of Myanmar. There, these groups have purportedly joined hands with the military Junta in its fight against the pro-democracy resistance forces. Unlike most other ethnic insurgencies in the North East which have ended with peace pacts signed with the Centre, the Meitei insurgent groups have continued to hold on to their separatist demands, refusing to engage in political dialogue with the Indian state. The United Liberation Front of Manipur is, in fact, said to be the largest active separatist group in the North East – despite having splintered into factions. One fraction led by Pambei has just signed an agreement with the Govt, they had used weapons looted from the police forces and recruited gullible youths to show their strength.
The current ethnic conflict has provided rife ground for these outfits to regroup and regain public support. The Meiteis feel their lives and land are under siege from well-armed Kuki militants – and they need protection. A meeting was held among the VBIGs in the first week of July where the AoRs (areas of responsibility) were divided. However, the main groups like PLA, UNLF ( Y), PREPAK, KYKL are still in Myanmar not able to infiltrate, where as some of them have come to Manipur to join the fight. The youth of villagers formed village defence groups and this is same with Kuki and Meitei. The youth are led and trained by surrendered and bail out ex cadres of UGs, where as in Kuki area the SoO cadres are actively taking part in the communal clash by training and mobilising youths.
Kuki UGs signed the SoO agreement with Army in 2005 and the govt in 2008. All the cadres of UPF and KNO were registered and all the weapons were kept under lock at their designate camps. What we must understand is the Kuki SoO groups have not deposited any weapons after 2008 nor their cadre strength increased. Where as in reality, with the heavy extortion from highway, percentage from contract work, drug money, they have been buying advance weapons and adding their cadres. They also enjoyed support of the Govt by promising support during assembly election. The non recorded weapons and cadres are now being fully utilised by the Kukis in attacking and defending the Kuki interest and area.
With the coming of VBIG and the rising of Arambai tengol as a volunteer armed group, While the initial contingent of militant cadres joining the conflict wasn’t large, the numbers have since soared to over 1,000s, and civil society activists known to have links with the outfits are also openly supporting. Now question arises, does the public support for the insurgents and armed volunteers signal a reigniting of separatist sentiments among the Meitei people? Possibly not. However, many youth are now talking of going back to pre-merger agreement, which in itself is a separatist idea. Many youth volunteers now have no fear or worry about the Army as the they feel they can get away with anything since, due to govt lack of clear objective and directions, the Army had been avoiding direct confrontation.
The Final Move
Manipur govt wanted to scrap the SoO agreement due to involvement of Kuki cadres in unlawful incidents, but then the GoI kept it on hold and then the communal clash happned. With significant proof of involvement of SoO groups, the govt will likely disarm them after the conflict. Govt has been recording and documenting the Kuki SoO cadres involvement in the clash. The transnational insurgency involvement of Kuki groups in their quest for a Kuki nation is also well recorded. Like KNF/KNA in Bangladesh and their training in Manipur, ZRA(EC) and KNA(B) influence and involvement in Myanmar and the logistic and support by Kukis in Manipur. The involvement in drug smuggling into Manipur and to India by various UG cadres are also well documented.
Since, the start of the clash, public support towards both the community armed volunteers and insurgents were heavy. People supported and lifted them as saviours. The Govt Forces didn’t mount any major operations, Continuous prolong conflict for more than 8 months has now given a feeling to the youth and insurgents that they are invincible and that the Security forces are weak, in the mean time numerous armed gangs has also flourished, leading to heavy extortion, kidnapping, loots etc apart from the extortion and loot by armed volunteers and insurgents alike. Now the public are also getting pinched with the deteriorating law and order, with no business and income but rising extortion activities. I feel the govt is letting this happen so that the public gets fed up with the armed gangs and then say enough is enough. The police nor the central forces including Army are not reacting to extortion and criminal activities. Is this a move to make people wean against the Armed gangs and the insurgents, I feel it is.
Situation in Myanmar is volatile, the Meitei insurgents are involved in the fight along with the Myanmar Junta to supress the Pro Democratic movement, for them it’s a dilemma. If they don’t support the junta will throw them out, if they support, the rebels are hunting them down. Now they cannot infiltrate into India (Manipur) as all the bordering area where they had camps are in Kuki Zo areas. They are also not able to infiltrate from the northern Naga areas as its controlled by the NSCN IM. The Govt is well aware of it. The situation was not created but it happened due to Communal clash between Kuki-Meitei of 3 May onwards. Those inside the Valley are not able to move out either in Naga or kuki areas and are confined to the valley plains, where hiding is impossible once a military operation is launched.
The rampant extortion by all VBIG in valley area looks desperate, the leaders seems to know the inevitable outcome after the conflict and the govt action plan. The cadres are collecting the money in the name of buying guns etc where as to me it seems more like a piggy bank to have a nice retired life after surrender. UNLF Pambei group has done a peace agreement with the govt but they are now openly extorting money and kidnapping people, their fate will be similar to UPPK and KCP(MC) who also did a SoO with the govt but their rampant extortion and criminal activities made sure the party is disbanded and finished. UNLF (P) is moving in the same direction.
There are numerous Military and para Military, central police that were deployed in Manipur for the clash. Looking at the deployment of the forces, it seems obvious that they were not deployed haphazardly, infact they have been deployed tactically and strategically for launch of military operations in near future. There are approximately 1 lakh forces including state police now, all trying to prevent any human loss in conflict. There are units deployed for guarding the Myanmar border. I am sure, for launch of military operation the Army will ask the GoI to declare Disturbed area and the AFSPA. I am hopeful they will give a firm date for handing of the weapons to govt. However due to young blood, Groups like Arambai Tengol may likely not yield to govt and continue holding the weapons thinking nothing will happen, that’s the time when innocent lives will be lost.
There are thousand of FIR lodged during the 8 month, many people name has been included in the FIR, and now they are moving freely not realising that they will land in police custody and will be marked as Bail out. All the ex UG who were with weapons will again be treated as UG, on the kuki side, there are ample of photo and video with clear faces showing sophisticated weapons, the same with Meitei. This photo and video will be the proof of involvement of SoO or UG cadres, high end software are being used to digitally identify using face recognition, digital scanning, AADHAR and other govt IDs.
CONCLUSION
The delay in action by the Govt can be for the following reasons:
1. Modification of SoO rules with the Kuki UGs and taking over of arms from them, by giving an Autonomous region inside of Manipur with financial and executive power to the ADC?
2. The conflict, many believe, may be an opening to get the Meitei groups to the negotiating table. Conduct some kind of operation to put pressure for talk. Use the VBIG to defend the interests in the volatile Indo-Myanmar region, like Kuki militants once did when they were reportedly used as a mercenary force by the Indian security apparatus.
3. The prolong conflict in Manipur has lead to many VBIG coming out and fighting for the Meitei, maybe the Govt is waiting for the balance to come out of Myanmar, as sustaining in Myanmar for the VBIG is now untenable, due to severe hostility by the people of Myanmar where they have the camps.
4. New Delhi could have opted to impose president’s rule, which would allow the central state to assume command over all security forces in the area and recover stolen weapons – a step that would have been in keeping with the tough security image cultivated by Modi’s federal government. Yet in the run-up to 2024 national elections, the BJP is not risking losing the Meiteis’ electoral support. Valley has 1 MP seat while Hill also have 1 but it will be fight between Kuki and Naga.
5. The Govt maybe Waiting for the Parliamentary Election 2024, there maybe some kind of operation on both kuki and Meitei before election and finish the communal clash? Which in the eye of the nation will be a big achievement of Mr Modi, to have a effect in election, this maybe akin to the Balakot strike before the 2019 Election, which swayed the public opinion.
6. Or conduct operation after election when Mr Modi wins the election, as any failure in achieving peace in Manipur may have effect on the result of election, as many in India believe that Mr Modi can stop war between Russia and Ukraine to evacuate Indian students, so why could he not do that in Manipur?
Any missing points, or difference in view can be discussed. Please feel free to comment.
