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26/05/2023

The concept of using scientific understanding to beat the house isn’t new. In the late 1970s the "Eudaemons," a group of physics postgraduates, used theoretical insights and a rudimentary computer concealed in a shoe to win at roulette in Nevada in the 1970s. But since they didn’t publish their research, nobody outside their team knows the details of how they did it.

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26/05/2023

"You basically press a button when the ball passes a certain point and then use that timing to make a prediction," Small said.

Predicting the half of the wheel in which the ball would settle would allow a gambler to bet on a combination of numbers with some confidence.

In 22 trials, Small and Tse predicted the correct half 13 times. Overall that would have earned them 18 percent profit on a theoretical stake, they report.

"It is clear that in principle one should be able to make some predictions, given sufficient information," said Holger Dullin of the University of Sydney in Australia. "The paper by Small and Tse did a good analysis."

15/05/2023

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13/05/2023

However, when the bets were made (students were betting with their $15 participation fee) and the first game played, 40 percent of the losers changed their minds and deviated from their plan. Of that 40 percent, 90 percent bet a larger amount than they had planned in the next game. The winners stuck to their plans.

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13/05/2023

For the "Brains vs. Artificial Intelligence" tournament, four of the world's best poker players faced off one-on-one against Libratus in 120,000 hands of poker. At stake was a $200,000 pot, which the human players received even if they lost.

"They are professionals, so they were fighting to the bitter end, really hard," Sandholm said. "They were studying really hard every night on their computers, trying to find holes in the AI."

In the end, it was no contest: The AI prevailed.

As part of the program, bluffing naturally emerged as a mathematically sound strategy, Sandholm noted.