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nother problem is figuring out how to test three-player games fairly. One experiment could have two humans play the machine, but Bowling said the human players may collude against the machine, even if unintentionally. Similar problems could arise in experiments with two machine players and one human: Even if the two programs didn't collude, it might look that way to a human being. "We don't know how to run it fairly," he said.

Bowling said this technology could have diverse uses, ranging from national security, to tracking fare evasion on transit systems, to making decisions about medical treatment. For example, the program could help a doctor who needs to make a decision about treatment but is unsure of the possible outcomes. The methods used in the poker program could help doctors identify treatment options with optimal results, or one with the best probability of success.

The research was described online today (Jan. 8) in the journal Science

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12/06/2023

Mark Twain, lamenting his lack of skill with numbers, stratified statistics as a worse than average form of lying.

Nonetheless – and acknowledging there is no small opportunity for irony when a researcher asks about how often people lie – who lies and how often are open questions across the behavioural sciences.

We do know almost everyone lies. Women and men lie on average equally often, but about different things. There is some evidence too that men are better liars than women.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, estimates of how often we lie vary wildly. That is partly because context is important. Lying is, after all, a type of social glue, and – not surprisingly – people lie in surveys.

So the next time you pull up a chair at the casino or with mates at a poker night, remember – while you may find it hard to tell if your opponents are lying, they’re probably also finding you hard to read.

12/06/2023

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12/06/2023

A rabbit's foot, four-leaf cover, lucky penny or horseshoe charm — compulsive gamblers with high impulsivity are more likely to rely on these to win, a new study shows.

Pathological gambling, also known as compulsive gambling, is a recognized psychiatric diagnosis with symptoms including being unable to resist impulses to gamble and being unable to stop gambling even when losing, which can lead to debt and family problems.

In the new study, researchers used a variety of surveys to compare the beliefs of 30 gamblers seeking treatment at London's National Problem Gambling Clinic with 30 non-gamblers from the general population.

To test impulsivity, the researchers had participants answer financial questions involving trade-offs between smaller amounts of money received immediately (say $20 today) and larger amounts of money available in the future ($35 in two weeks). The gamblers were more likely to choose the immediate reward despite the fact that it was less money. [10 Easy Paths to Self Destruction]

The findings also showed that the gamblers with higher levels of impulsivity were more susceptible to various errors in reasoning known to occur during gambling. For instance, the highly impulsive gamblers had more superstitious rituals, such as carrying around a lucky coin or blowing on a die before rolling it. They were also more likely to irrationally blame their losses on bad luck.

"The link between impulsivity and gambling beliefs suggests to us that high impulsivity can predispose a range of more complex distortions — such as superstitions — that gamblers often experience," study researcher Luke Clark of the University of Cambridge's Department of Experimental Psychiatry said in a statement.

The research, which was funded by the Medical Research Council, also showed that the gamblers acted especially impulsively during high or low moods, which are frequently cues that can trigger gambling sprees. The pathological gamblers from the clinic were seeking help for various forms of gambling, including sports betting, Internet poker or blackjack, slot machines and casino games.

12/06/2023

Of course, the little white lies we tell to keep conversations flowing or to compliment (or at least avoid offending!) our friend/partner/boss seem hardly interesting. Juicier are the venal deceits that, when detected, leave trust shattered and lives changed. As it turns out, all lies, big or small, are tactical deceptions.

If only it were this easy to spot a liar.

If only it were this easy to spot a liar. (Image credit: BFLV/Flickr, CC BY-NC)
Tactical deceptions require the liar to actively manipulate information to mislead another. They are interesting because the creation of such a deception has been interpreted as evidence that the liar has developed a theory of mind – I lie, therefore I think.

If that is true the implications are broad: both old world and new world monkeys have been observed in tactical deceptions. The same is true for other great apes, and even ravens.