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27/05/2023

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The findings suggest that in addition to perhaps holding back on smugness during the office pool for the March Madness b...
27/05/2023

The findings suggest that in addition to perhaps holding back on smugness during the office pool for the March Madness basketball tournament, savvy sports gamblers may not do well in standard therapy for gambling addiction.

"Casino gamblers Casino gamblers are more appropriately characterized as obsessives, because they have less belief in themselves, and know that they will lose sooner or later. But they gamble anyway because they feel they need to," Dannon said in a statement.

Most people know that casino games like slot machines are all about luck (and that the house always wins). But sports ga...
27/05/2023

Most people know that casino games like slot machines are all about luck (and that the house always wins). But sports gamblers often believe their success comes down to skill or knowledge of the sport itself.

To see whether that was the case, Dannon asked 165 people to guess the final score in 16 soccer matches in the Champion's League, which is organized by the Union of European Football Associations. Of those, 53 were professional sports gamblers, 34 were soccer fans that didn't gamble, and 78 knew little about soccer and had never gambled.

Soccer knowledge had little bearing on the outcome of the bets. Whereas inexperience didn't necessarily help, knowing the ins and outs of the game didn't improve the odds of winning either.

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translates to the "unbeatable play" strategy, Sandholm said.However, "the game has 10 to the power of 160 different situ...
16/05/2023

translates to the "unbeatable play" strategy, Sandholm said.

However, "the game has 10 to the power of 160 different situations," meaning it has many, many more computational possibilities than Go. As a result, the program can't calculate the perfect Nash equilibrium solution, but must instead approximate.

In the past, that's been a stumbling block. Libratus was involved in a poker tournament in 2015 and couldn't beat the humans, with the match ending in a statistical tie. However, the souped-up version of Libratus used in the recent tournament has a better end-game solving strategy, Sandholm said.

The tournament
For the "Brains vs. Artificial Intelligence" tournament, four of the world's best poker players faced off one-on-one against Libratus in 120,000 hands of poker. At stake was a $200,000 pot, which the human players received even if they lost.

"They are professionals, so they were fighting to the bitter end, really hard," Sandholm said. "They were studying really hard every night on their computers, trying to find holes in the AI."

In the end, it was no contest: The AI prevailed.

"With a very strong hand and with the weakest hands, you want to make those big overbets," Sandholm said.Libratus was al...
16/05/2023

"With a very strong hand and with the weakest hands, you want to make those big overbets," Sandholm said.

Libratus was also more likely than the humans to underbet in certain surprising situations, Sandholm said. And every night, it went home and adapted its strategy based on the hands it had played.

"The adaptation was not to learn to exploit the opponent, but rather to determine what holes the opponent had found in the AI strategy and automatically patch those holes," Sandholm said.

Still, there's some hope for the mere mortals. In Heads-Up Texas Hold'em, two players compete. But Libratus would have no idea how to beat players in a poker game with five or six players. There, Nash eq

The key, the modelers found, is knowing the precise location of the ball and the relative speeds of the ball and wheel w...
14/05/2023

The key, the modelers found, is knowing the precise location of the ball and the relative speeds of the ball and wheel when the croupier -- the casino worker in charge of the game -- sets the wheel in motion and releases the ball.

"Knowing the initial conditions allows you to beat the odds," said Michael Small, a statistician at The University of Western Australia in Perth, who carried out the study with Chi Kong Tse of Hong Kong Polytechnic University. "In some cases you can beat them quite significantly."

The simpler method the pair tested involves careful observation and recording of the initial conditions by an individual...
14/05/2023

The simpler method the pair tested involves careful observation and recording of the initial conditions by an individual or team of players. In experiments on a roulette wheel in a laboratory, the method produced predicted earnings of almost 20 percent instead of the expected loss of about 2.7 percent for a European-style wheel. In U.S. casinos, the odds tilt farther in the house's favor because the wheel contains one extra space.

The other approach, using a digital camera mounted above the wheel to obtain the same data, provided better predictions. But for gamblers it presents the obvious problem of how to conceal the equipment in a security-conscious casino.

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