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27/05/2023

The concept of using scientific understanding to beat the house isn’t new. In the late 1970s the "Eudaemons," a group of physics postgraduates, used theoretical insights and a rudimentary computer concealed in a shoe to win at roulette in Nevada in the 1970s. But since they didn’t publish their research, nobody outside their team knows the details of how they did it.

On the heels of this new research, however, J. Doyne Farmer, a group member who is now a professor of mathematics at Oxford, has written a report on the exploit that he plans to submit for publication.

"Small and Tse get some aspects of roulette prediction right," Farmer said. "I can’t say whether their system would work, but I'm sure it is not as good as ours."

27/05/2023

In 22 trials, Small and Tse predicted the correct half 13 times. Overall that would have earned them 18 percent profit on a theoretical stake, they report.

"It is clear that in principle one should be able to make some predictions, given sufficient information," said Holger Dullin of the University of Sydney in Australia. "The paper by Small and Tse did a good analysis."

14/05/2023

You watch with interest the next spin of the wheel. It too lands on black, as does the next spin – and the next, and the next.

With 24 spins in a row landing on black you place your chips on the table. Where would you put your money? On the black, anticipating the next spin of the wheel will land a 25th black? Or on red, reasoning that the chances of the next spin landing on black are almost zero?

14/05/2023

This article was originally published at The Conversation. The publication contributed the article to Live Science's Expert Voices: Op-Ed & Insights.

Imagine yourself, a picture of sartorial elegance and sipping champagne from a crystal flute, in Le Grande Casino at Monte Carlo. It is a Monday night – in fact, the date is August 18, 1913 – and you are enjoying the tables surrounded by others, all of whom are similarly well-dressed, well-heeled and well-oiled.

You hear, from the roulette table, a growing commotion and you wander over to see what is going on. At the table you discover that the wheel has spun, 20 times in a row, black (a pattern a little less likely than tossing 20 heads in a row with a coin).