Next Monday, we’re at the NATO Youth Summit!
Virtual Delegate Registration Here ⬇️
www.wm.edu/2023NATOYouthSummit
#NATOYouthSummit #NATO
NATO William & Mary
New Developments in Russo-Belarus Relations 🇷🇺🇧🇾
🇷🇺 President Putin flies to Belarus, holds talks with Lukashenko
🇧🇾 Further integration of the ‘Union State’ possibly on agenda
#Geopolitics #Russia #Belarus #UnionState #Europe #Integration #War #Military #Politics #Society #Economics
Why did senior Russian leadership just visit Belarus?
On Monday December 19 (2022), Russian President Vladimir Putin landed in Belarus for talks with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko for the first time since 2019. Putin was joined by Foreign Secretary Lavrov and Defense Minister Shoigu.
Western sources suggest Putin may be coordinating a renewed offensive into Ukraine this winter with Lukashenko. While Belarusian territory has been used by the Russian military in the war, Belarus has not yet committed troops to the conflict despite long-running rumors and the expansion of his forces this year—perhaps due to concerns about popularity at home.
The Russian news agency TASS, on the other hand, reports that the leaders are meeting to review relations, and discuss trade and economic issues, as well as the integration programs of the Russo-Belarus ‘Union State’.
🚨 New Russian Missile Attacks
💥 Russia launched a wave of missile attacks on Ukraine today.
⚡Critical infrastructure appeared to be the main target once again.
#Ukraine #War #News #Russia #Geopolitics
Russia has continued missile strikes on Ukraine this morning, being estimated to have fired as many as 60 projectiles at the state.
The missiles hit multiple cities, with critical infrastructure appearing to be the main target once again.
At least two people were reported as casualties in the southern city after a residential building was hit.
Russia reportedly fired the missiles from positions in the Black Sea while using bomber aircraft as part of a large effort to distract anti-aircraft defenses.
What is the Northern Sea Route? 🌏
As ice recedes a new shipping route is opening up in the Arctic 🧊
This new route could represent attractive time and fuel cost savings for shipping companies 💰
Find out more here ⤵️
#NorthernSeaRoute #NSR #Arctic #ArcticGeopolitics #Future #SuezCanal #Geopolitics
For centuries ships have mainly travelled from East Asia to Europe through one of two routes. The first being through the Indian Ocean and around the Cape of Good Hope, and the second and more recent, through the Indian Ocean, Red Sea and Suez Canal.
However, as average global temperatures continue to rise and Artic Sea ice recedes further, a third route is now opening up, this being the Northern Sea Route through the Bering Strait, the seas of the Arctic Ocean.
For the sake of comparison, were a ship to travel from Japan to the Netherlands via the Northern Sea Route the distance would be less than 9000 kilometres, whereas the route through the Red Sea and Suez Canal would be a distance of roughly 20,000 kilometers. Therefore, the shortcut through the NSR represents an attractive saving in time and fuel costs for many shipping companies.
The viability of the Northern Sea Route has been called into question by some experts, however, who cite issues such as a lack of infrastructure along Arctic Coastlines and weather conditions as major issues.
What was Minsk II? 🇺🇦
In 2015 European Leaders Came Up with a Plan for Peace In Ukraine 🇺🇦
That Plan Failed.
So what exactly was the Minsk II Agreement?
More here ⤵️
#Minsk #MinskII #Minsk2 #Ukraine #War #Russia #Germany #France #Geo
What was Minsk II? Minsk II was the second of the Minsk agreements that followed the Russian-backed insurgency in the Donbass region of Ukraine in 2014, and aimed to resolve the conflict.
Drafted by Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe), with mediation by the leaders of France and Germany in 2015 after the failure of its predecessor Minsk Protocol - Minsk II called for a full ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons such as artillery and rocket launchers, and monitoring by OSCE.
Politically, there were to be pardons, amnesty, and prisoner exchanges for participants in the fighting, as well as a process for constitutional reform in Ukraine ‘taking into account the peculiarities of particular districts of [the] Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts’.
However, the agreement was unsuccessful, and with the invasion of Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022, the Minsk agreements were effectively dead.
The History of NATO Expansion 🗺️
🌍 NATO: Who’s in it, and when did they join?
💥 Who’s still in the process of joining?
#NATO #Expansion #Ukraine #Geopolitics
How has NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) expanded over the years? Enlargement of NATO is called the Article 10 process. ‘Any other European state’ may be invited, and requires approval of all current members. At the end of the Cold War, NATO consisted of the United States, Canada, Portugal, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Italy, Greece and Turkey. In securing Soviet agreement for a unified Germany’s membership, NATO promised that no foreign troops or nuclear weapons would be stationed in the former East Germany. Whether further eastward expansion of NATO was agreed, however, remains a point of controversy. Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joined in 1999. Membership was offered to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria in 2004, and Albania and Croatia in 2009. More recent entrants to NATO include Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020. As of today, three countries have applied: Finland, Sweden, and Ukraine: all after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February (2022).
What are Private Military Companies? 🪖
🪖 Private Military Companies are playing an ever-increasing role in modern warfare.
#PMCs #Wagner #Blackwater #Geopolitics #History
They fight in Russia’s war in Ukraine, protect mines in Africa, became a major part of the US’s occupation of Iraq and seem to be playing an ever greater role in the increasingly murky world of warfare - what exactly are Private Military Companies (PMCs)? Being a mercenary is one of the world’s oldest professions, but the origins of the modern PMC can be traced back to a group of ex-SAS veterans, who, in 1965, founded a company called WatchGuard International. A dramatic growth of PMCs occurred after the end of the cold war in the early 90s, with falling military budgets and an exodus of over 6 million personnel from national militaries being some of the main driving factors. Since then governments of all calibres worldwide have used PMCs for different tasks, including in anti-piracy efforts off the Horn of Africa, operational support in Iraq, and in kinetic conflicts such as that in Yemen. Some of the most well-known companies include the notorious Blackwater, now called Academi, founded by Erik Prince, to the Russian Wagner Group. PMCs provide a degree of separation between governments and conflicts which is politically favourable, allowing for plausible deniability, and their use can only be expected to increase.
What are the Nord Stream Pipelines?
🛢️What are the Nord Stream pipelines?
💥When did they stop working?
#Russia #Ukraine #NordStream #NordStreamExplosions
What are the Nord Stream Pipelines?
The ‘Nord Stream’ is a network of offshore natural gas pipelines in Europe, running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. Natural gas is crucial to European power and heating needs, and Russia accounted for two-fifths of their supply before the start of the war in Ukraine.
Gas flows from Nord Stream 1, which opened in 2011, were indefinitely shut off in early September 2022. Gazprom, the Russian state-owned company which operates the pipelines, said this was due to EU sanctions impacting maintenance, while EU officials accused Russia of weaponizing energy due to their support of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Nord Stream 2, which was completed in 2021, never started pumping gas due to US sanctions in response to the war.
3 out of the 4 Nord Stream pipes were sabotaged by an unknown actor in late September 2022. Given Russian-European tensions and the EU’s seeming determination to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels, it is unlikely that the pipelines will be back online any time soon.
The EU and Serbia have said that tensions could result in violence in Kosovo after EU-mediated talks failed to resolve a dispute over car number plates.
#Serbia #Kosovo #NumberPlates #Plates #Cars #EU #Dispute #Talks #News #Geopolitics
The EU and Serbia have said that tensions could result violence in Kosovo after EU-mediated talks failed to resolve a dispute over car number plates.
The Kosovo authorities want the ethnic Serb minority to remove Serbian-issued plates: but Serbia does not recognise Kosovan independence.
The rules on Serbian plates were first mooted in August this year, but enforcement was postponed until the beginning of this month. Kosovo’s Deputy Prime Minister Bislimi has said they are tired of the EU ‘solving issues by postponing them’. Meanwhile, many Kosovan Serbs say they are fed up of feeling like pawns in Serbia-Kosovo disputes.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said he would inform the bloc of the two countries' "lack of respect for their international legal obligations", warning that the dispute could impact their EU accession progress.
Roughly 3,700 NATO peacekeepers are stationed in the disputed territory, to prevent violence between ethnic Albanians and Serbs.
Turkey Indicates It May Launch A Ground Offensive in Northern Syria & Iraq 🇹🇷
🇹🇷 Turkish president Erdogan is hinting at a ground offensive into Northern Syria and Iraq
💥 Hint follows bombing campaign into the same territories pursuing alleged Kurdish groups
#Turkey #Geopolitics #Syria #Kurdistan #Iraq
Turkish president Erdogan has indicated that his ground forces might get involved in Northern Syria and Iraq. This follows cross-border air raids on claimed locations of Kurdish bases blamed for the bombing in central Istanbul last week.
The rising tensions have attracted US and Russian urges for Ankara to show restraint. Previous Turkish actions have already reportedly killed 184 fighters and destroyed 89 targets including shelters, bunkers, caves, and tunnels. Strikes from the Syrian territory reportedly continue, however, with two killed by suspected Kurdish rocket fire yesterday (21 November 2022).
A Turkish offensive would have the potential, though unlikely, of destabilising the region: it would also reveal the limits of ‘great power mediation’ amidst a general uptick in instability in the world. Base Rate will keep its viewers informed of any new developments.
💸 The collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX has put its home country, the Bahamas, into the spotlight
🇧🇸 The Bahamas is a growing centre of geopolitical intrigue between China and the US
#Bahamas #FTX
What is the geopolitical significance of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas?
The Bahamas is caught in the middle of a geopolitical competition for influence between the United States and China due to its strategic geographic significance and reputation as a travel destination.
The Bahamas is a key part of the US’s Latin American strategy, linked to oil interests in Venezuela and Brazil and combatting of drug trafficking in the region.
For China, gaining influence in The Bahamas acts to destabilise US policy, and furthers China’s Belt-and-Road venture into Latin America of the last decade.
In 2021, Sino-Bahamian trade reached $492 million, a 40% year-on-year increase. The country’s recent encounters with natural disasters and the Covid-19 pandemic have contributed to driving this recent growth.
As US-China competition continues to warm, and questions continue to swirl around the future of FTX and its elusive former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, the Bahamas will continue to be an arena for geopolitical contestation.
France Ends its West African Mission 🇫🇷
Earlier this year France had roughly 4,300 soldiers in the Sahel region, and as high as 5,500 at its peak 🪖
Now President Macron has announced an end to his country’s operation Barkhane, meaning that most French troops in the Sahel region will be withdrawn 🔚
#France #Geopolitics #GeopoliticsofFrance #News #Sahel #Africa #Mali #BurkinoFaso #Chad #Mauritania
In a speech in Toulon on November 9th, French president Emmanuel Macron detailed both a sharp pivot in France's military strategy, and a reorganization of the European powerhouse’s security priorities.
Most notably, Macron announced an end to France’s Operation Barkhane, a 2014 anti-extremist mission in the Sahel region, a strip of former French colonies including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger.
He cited the crisis in Ukraine as a reason for France to focus on its domestic security in the face of war returning to European soil. Other factors included extremist groups continuing to proliferate, French casualties rising, and the Malian government turning to the Russian Wagner Group for its security after its 2021 coup.
Earlier this year France had ~4,300 soldiers in the Sahel region, and as high as 5,500 at its peak.
French withdrawal from the region may have a similar result to the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan: this being the creation of a power vacuum where extremist groups can take a foothold.
What is the geopolitical significance of the Philippines? 🇵🇭
The second most populous country in Southeast Asia, the Philippines is caught up in the intensifying competition between the US and China 🇺🇸🇨🇳
Its location means it plays an important role in regional security affairs such as the South China Sea territorial dispute, as well as the economics of changing trade routes and supply chains 🌐
#Philippines #Geopolitics #China #US #WorldGeopolitics #GeopoliticsOf
What is the geopolitical significance of the Philippines?
The second most populous country in Southeast Asia, the Philippines is caught up in the intensifying competition between the US and China. Its location means it plays an important role in regional security affairs such as the South China Sea territorial dispute, as well as the economics of changing trade routes and supply chains.
The US, the Philippines’ most important security partner, likely sees it as a springboard from which containment of China can be launched. As the fifth most mineralized country in the world, the US might also be looking to the Philippines as a source of raw materials in the event of a decoupling from China.
China’s role is likely that of a security spoiler: seeking to deprive the US of an important base of operations. It is already the Philippines’ top trading partner, accounting for 16% of its exports, and 39% of its imports. Chinese tourists contribute greatly to the Philippines’ tourism industry.
The Philippines is not likely to want to choose sides. But it may soon be asked to do so: and who it chooses will be of great importance to regional, and indeed world, geopolitics.
🇷🇺 How large are the Russian minorities in the Baltic States?
💥 Why is this a potential flashpoint?
#Russia #Estonia #Latvia #Lithuania #Geopolitics #Ukraine
Why are the Baltics weary of their Russian populations?
The three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have large ethnic Russian minorities - each to varying degrees
Estonia has a Russian minority of 24%, Latvia of 25%, and Lithuania of 5%.
These minorities, particularly in Estonia and Latvia where they are larger, are a source of worry for their respective governments.
This is because they fear Russia could influence or weaponise them against their respective governments, or because the state could use them as a justification to intervene militarily in those countries.
Both of these factors are particularly relevant given Vladimir Putin’s increased interest in the so-called “Russian speaking world” and the war in Ukraine.
However, the three states are afforded the protection of the EU and NATO - keeping the risk of direct military intervention on the part of Russia relatively low.
Many ethnic Russian and Russian speaking peoples in the Baltics claim that they are discriminated against, with issues such as citizenship after the fall of the Soviet Union being a point of contention.
The EU and Serbia have said that tensions could result in violence in Kosovo after EU-mediated talks failed to resolve a dispute over car number plates.
#Serbia #Kosovo #NumberPlates #Plates #Cars #EU #Dispute #Talks #News #Geopolitics
The EU and Serbia have said that tensions could result violence in Kosovo after EU-mediated talks failed to resolve a dispute over car number plates.
The Kosovo authorities want the ethnic Serb minority to remove Serbian-issued plates: but Serbia does not recognise Kosovan independence.
The rules on Serbian plates were first mooted in August this year, but enforcement was postponed until the beginning of this month. Kosovo’s Deputy Prime Minister Bislimi has said they are tired of the EU ‘solving issues by postponing them’. Meanwhile, many Kosovan Serbs say they are fed up of feeling like pawns in Serbia-Kosovo disputes.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said he would inform the bloc of the two countries' "lack of respect for their international legal obligations", warning that the dispute could impact their EU accession progress.
Roughly 3,700 NATO peacekeepers are stationed in the disputed territory, to prevent violence between ethnic Albanians and Serbs.
Turkey Indicates It May Launch A Ground Offensive in Northern Syria & Iraq 🇹🇷
🇹🇷 Turkish president Erdogan is hinting at a ground offensive into Northern Syria and Iraq
💥 Hint follows bombing campaign into the same territories pursuing alleged Kurdish groups
#Turkey #Geopolitics #Syria #Kurdistan #Iraq
Turkish president Erdogan has indicated that his ground forces might get involved in Northern Syria and Iraq. This follows cross-border air raids on claimed locations of Kurdish bases blamed for the bombing in central Istanbul last week.
The rising tensions have attracted US and Russian urges for Ankara to show restraint. Previous Turkish actions have already reportedly killed 184 fighters and destroyed 89 targets including shelters, bunkers, caves, and tunnels. Strikes from the Syrian territory reportedly continue, however, with two killed by suspected Kurdish rocket fire yesterday (21 November 2022).
A Turkish offensive would have the potential, though unlikely, of destabilising the region: it would also reveal the limits of ‘great power mediation’ amidst a general uptick in instability in the world. Base Rate will keep its viewers informed of any new developments.
What is NATO's Article 4? 🧭
🧭 NATO’s Article 4 and 5 have been in the news recently. What are they?
#NATO #Article4 #Article5 #Russia #Ukraine #Poland
What is NATO’s (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) Article 4?
Article 4 differs from NATO’s mutual defense clause, Article 5. Article 4 is triggered when a member state believes their “territorial integrity, political independence or security” is threatened. Invocation begins consultation between the member country and NATO, and could lead to joint decisions or action by the alliance. It has been triggered seven times since NATO’s formation in 1949.
Article 4 was last trigged in March 2022, by Eastern European and Baltic members of NATO following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Other Article 4 consultations in recent years have revolved around Turkey’s conflict with Syria.
🚨 A Quick Update on the Polish Border Explosion
#Ukraine #Poland #Explosion #Missile #Russia #News #Breaking
A quick update on the Polish border explosion.
After it was initially reported that Russian rockets had hit Polish territory near the Ukrainian border yesterday, news has now emerged that suggests the explosion which killed two people was caused by a stray missile fired by a Ukrainian anti-air system.
As a result, the Polish Prime Minister said that triggering NATO’s Article 4 was unnecessary, quelling fears of escalation.
Nevertheless, an emergency NATO meeting was held on Wednesday, November 16.
Events and speculation surrounding the explosions have shown just how quickly the Ukrainian conflict could escalate.
What is BRICS? 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦
🏛️ BRICS is a multilateral forum of leading emerging economies
🗺️ Members include 🇧🇷 Brazil, 🇷🇺 Russia, 🇮🇳 India, 🇨🇳 China, and 🇿🇦 South Africa
#Brazil #Russia #India #China #SouthAfrica
What is BRICS? BRICS, or Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa is a group of five leading emerging economies.
BRICS emerged in 2001 as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), and was later joined by South Africa in 2010. The grouping became a formal geopolitical entity from 2009 onwards, with summits and coordination of policies.
The BRICS countries account for around 27% of the world’s land surface and around 42% of the global population. The grouping is considered a competitor to the ‘G7’ bloc, with competing institutions and initiatives in the areas of development economics, financial reserves, currencies, and payments.
