24/01/2022
Did Kit-Gwang Group sign honourable peace or did they surrender!
By Gwado J. Ador
Khartoum, Sudan
24 Jan. 2022
First, it started as a rumour, then later it was confirmed that Kit-Gwang Group which was formally under SPLM-IO was secretly meeting government envoy from Juba to facilitate their orderly defection or rather to say ‘surrender’ to the government’s side!
As expected, things went viral and Kit-Gwang Group was being attacked for breaking away from the SPLM-IO.
They formed a parallel-group under the Leadership of Gen. Gatwech Dual to challenge Dr Riek Machar’s IO authority on the ground. A situation that angered Dr Machar and his supporters; they launched punitive expeditions against Kit-Gwang Group of which both sides entered several skirmishes.
Meanwhile, a series of clandestine meetings were taking place between the two sides, Kit-Gwang Group on one side and SPLM-IG on the other side were seen busy around the clock wrapping up the agreement that would make the Group ditch their former allies and end up joining the government fold under the President Salva Kiir Mayardit.
Whether the secret meetings between the Kit-Gwang group and the SPLM-IG which was mediated by Khartoum meet the standard of serious negotiations or not is beyond the scope of this article. But, many questions deserve honest answers here:
Firstly, will Agwelek see it through, and up to the end that Piny Collo is restored after this agreement? Should Collo be worried about the way how this agreement was concluded?
Secondly, has Agwelek negotiated the issue of IDP’s, compensation or reparation for the destroyed homes of the civilians and their assets in Malakal and what about peace and justice or equal distribution of wealth and power?
Lastly, have they discussed the threats of Apadang militias and their lethal killing machines which still looming over Collo innocent people in Malakal?
But, did Kit-Gwang group manage to twist the hands of President Kiir to revoke his popular decree, which gave ‘Dinka Apadang’ the right to occupy Collo Land?
Or will the issue of Piny Collo receive special attention within the corridors of SPLM-IG as hoped by some SPLM-IG Collo circles who were optimistic to support this agreement wholeheartedly?
In negotiations techniques, it’s always possible to win battles and lose a campaign or the reverse is true. In this scenario, Agwelek has for now lost the campaign and won the battles for Piny Collo!
However, President Kiir’s side has become skilful in playing off the opposition groups against one another using the soft power of money. His security advisor Tut Kyew Gatluak is always on the site; a very brute and shrewd character who embarks on naked reasoning that would always appeal to human basic needs. He is popular in his lavish style using an open budget spree for that purpose.
The buying of people to join a particular political camp is not a new phenomenon in politics across the world, but it’s current for the people of South Sudan.
Rebellion constitutes a long-life fortune to some individuals. Quite some rebel groups have been awarded huge sums of monies that could see them through their entire lives in the luxury of comforts. Thus, many people strive to rebel so that when they return within a short span of the period they rip up benefits that await them.
President Kiir and his group have always been open for that instance, some among the adverse group might even suggest rebellion and come back shortly as heroes, and huge sums of hard currency and all sorts of comforts will be at their doorsteps!
This is happening when South Sudan still lacks basic infrastructure, the low ranked civil servants, army and police forces, workers and teachers across South Sudan have not received salaries for several months in arrears.
The state, however, has failed to provide health care facilities, lack proper schools and clean water. Officials have no monthly dues for more than six months. But, surprisingly enough there was money available to buy off people so that they don’t oppose the leadership or their perception to rule for so many years to come.
Members of Agwelek could be lucky to join in, but some among them would be wary about the objectives for which they took up arms.
In this context, I believe the last negotiations were not honest. To be fair, it was carried out in haste. Kit-Gwang side settled for the least demands and that was joining SPLM-IG without securing whether ‘Piny Collo’ would be restored within a specified period or not.
Will this particular agreement be honoured by the hostile Apadang snipers who are lying in wait for victims in Malakal town? Has the SPLM-IG side promised to commit and stop any violation or aggression against innocent civilians in Malakal this time around?
Will Agwelek be deployed to do that job?
Let’s assume that this agreement has all the essential details to bring lasting peace in Malakal, would it be honoured and respected by all the parties concerned, what are the measures that would be in place to punish those who will violate the tranquillity of citizens or shoot and kill innocent IDP’s in POC Malakal.
What does that mean to already security arrangement signed between SPLM-IO and SPLM-IG in the revitalized peace agreement?
Did they discuss the issue of IDP’s and their peaceful return to their home land?
If the answer to all these prepositions is yes. Then let’s be optimistic that Collo had a step forward towards the realization of final peace in Upper Nile.
So far, Apadang didn’t react to the news of the Kit-Gwang-SPM-IG agreement, but soon, they will have a say on this development, they will likely challenge some points within the agreement text. Chances are that they will be threatening to rebel against President Kiir’s leadership and to join his rival forces of Riek’s IO’s camp!
However, Apadang militias will swap positions with Agwelek in cross-floor defections. A situation which will mean a lot to the issue of Piny Collo and the future of peace in Upper Nile if not the whole South Sudan!
However, the whole scenario looks like history is repeating itself; Kit-Gwang group has in effect joined the SPM-IG, or simply surrender to the side of Salva Kiir.
They did so voluntarily to avoid being picked on all the time by the rival parties. They have even been confronted by the agitated Arab militias in the neighbourhood at every opportunity.
Agwelek felt ‘war fatigue’ despite their latest swift victory against their opponents in the area. But, surprisingly enough, they had negotiated a bad deal which would take them several more years to campaign and realise the aims they had set their eyes on.
Certainly, this agreement will not realise the objective for which so many precious lives among Collo sons and daughters were lost. This agreement according to Kit-Gwang group and the Government’s side is about a ‘security arrangement’. It means, ‘Collo members belonging to Agwelek forces would be deployed and stationed in Collo land within the borders of 1956’, reliable sources close to the camp have indicated.
According to some members of the Agwelek, the issue at stake is not only about Piny Nyikango, it’s a combination of winning tickets and favours to join the government fold, and at the same time, it’s about realising the objective for which Collo people took up arms!
Remember, ‘let’s not confuse between losing battles or winning campaigns, these are two separate sides in a single coin’!.
Yes, Agwelek has won battles, but what about their campaign to secure and restore Collo land? Have they won it? Of course, No!
Unfortunately, Kit-Gwang group will have to go through this process time and again, they have to negotiate separately with SPLM-IG, and more importantly, they will have to follow the same path again from the beginning.
Agwelek is caught up in a circle of defections between the two main rivalling parties with different motives and prospects. Yesterday, they were with SPLM-IO, and today, they are members with SPLM-IG.
Sadly enough, they had negotiated an elusive security arrangement in which the issue of Collo land has not been clearly defined yet!
However, Agwelek gurus have instead chosen to settle for the least demand in their negotiations and by joining SPLM-IG under president Salva Kiir Mayardit, they have abandoned their declared position in the struggle for now. What will be the future prospect?!
Gen. Johnson Olonyo Thubo under this agreement will be going back to his position as an army general to command South Sudan hybrid forces of SSPDF, the same forces who some among them are still waiting for him in bait breath and grudge for a good opportunity to finish him off.
Anyhow, SPLM-IG leaders will soon be asking Kit-Gwang Group a difficult question whether to surrender their firearm arsenal, including armour trucks and equipment and launches in preparation to join SSPDF or face military disciplinary procedures as members of army forces.
Will they easily surrender their arm arsenals which were in their possession when they were rebels or resist giving them up?
However, it’s too early to predict the outcome of this sorts of agreement, but Collo should desist from hosting celebration to welcome this agreement, they shouldn’t rejoice this dubious deal which still contains devil in the details.
Agwelek should take the bull by the horn and squarely face the challenge, they have just plunged into.
Collo people have the right to be fully informed about the nature of this agreement and its implication in the foreseeable future. Surely, this latest game between SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO showed that the business will continue as usual between the rival parties. On the other hand, the main rivals will compete to welcome the defecting forces from one side to another and into their folds and so on and on end.
It’s obvious in the latest game, SPLM-IG is the winner and SPLM-IO is the loser! Dr Riek Machar has conceded recently that Kit-Gwang Group has defected his ranks and joined SPLM-IG. He congratulated his rival Kiir Mayardit for this big gain!
In a radio message to all IO units, Dr Riek Machar confirmed to all IO members that Kit-Gwang Group has effectively joined his rival camp and therefore all IO’s units have to observe ceasefire signed between the two main parties in the Revitalized Peace Agreement of 2018. Respectively, Machar has called on all the units to respect also the ceasefire with Kit-Gwang Group as part of SPLM-IG!
Finally, the issue of Piny Collo should have been in the centre of negotiations, which I believe Agwelek did its best to bring it to the fore, but it seems the other side represented by SPLM-IG were not so keen to discuss this issue in details. They were more focused on the benefits of formidable Agwelek joining their ranks and the rewards that will come with it mainly to individual members.
Both sides, however, concluded their negotiation in haste and ended up dispatching a low-key envoy to Juba to explain the outcome of the agreement between the two sides which was concluded recently in Khartoum.
The entire Collo people were expected to celebrate this premature achievement which was yet to be hammered out and verified. This agreement must be checked whether it meets the general taste of the entire Collo people for final peace or not! It will remain to be seen.
