https://peterlewismoneytalk.substack.com/

Peter Lewis' Money Talk, London (2024)

28/07/2024

PETER’S BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Monday 29 July 2024, 06:00 Hong Kong

Quick Summary - 4 Things To Know Before Asian Markets Open

1. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation rose at a tame pace in June and consumer spending remained healthy. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.2%, up from 0.1% in May and above expectations of 0.1%. The core rate rose 2.6% on the year, matching the prior month but above expectations of 2.5%. Food prices increased 0.1% and energy prices decreased 2.1%. Personal spending in the United States increased 0.3% from the previous month in June, in line with market expectations, and following an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in the previous month.

2. Tokyo’s headline inflation slowed slightly to 2.2% in July from 2.3% in June, while its core inflation rate, which strips out prices of fresh food, remained unchanged at 2.2%, in line with expectations. The so-called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of fresh food and energy and is closely watched by the Bank of Japan, fell to 1.5% from 1.8%. Inflation in Japan’s capital city is widely considered a leading indicator of nationwide trends.

3. Profits earned by China's industrial firms rose by 3.5% y/y to 3.511 trillion yuan in the first six months of 2024, after a 3.4% gain in the prior period. The latest figures came amid a fragile economic recovery with sluggish domestic demand, deflation risks, and persistent property market weakness. The increase shows the strength of the industrial side of the economy as a growth driver this year, with a 6% expansion in the first half helping to compensate for weak consumer spending. While profits are recovering from a weak performance last year, they still aren’t back to levels seen in 2022 or the record set in 2021. Profits in state-owned enterprises added 0.3% in H1 after falling 2.4% in Jan-May while those in the private sector continued to rise (6.8% vs 7.6%). Foreign firms recorded an 11% gain.

4. Asia-Pacific stock markets mostly rebounded on Friday after closing sharply lower Thursday as shares on Wall Street slumped following disappointing second quarter earnings from Tesla and Alphabet. The notable exception was Japan. The Nikkei 225 extended losses for an eighth straight day, sinking 0.5% to 37,667. For the week, the index slumped 6.0%. The Topix fell 0.4% to close at its lowest since April 26.

On Monday’s “Peter Lewis’ Money Talk” podcast, I’ll be joined by Alex Wong, director at Alex KY Wong Asset Management, and Michelle Lam, Greater China Economist at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking. Providing a view from Mainland China will be Hao Hong, Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● Fed’s key inflation gauge rises slightly above expectations ● China industrial profits increase in H1 ● Japan’s Nikkei 225 falls for 8th straight day

26/07/2024

PETER LEWIS' MONEY TALK - Friday 26 July 2024

On Friday's Money Talk,

● PBOC surprises markets with off-schedule cut to MLF
● Economic activity in the US considerably stronger than expected at 2.8%
● US tech selloff extends to Asia & Europe

with Francis Lun, the CEO of GEO Securities, and Carlos Casanova, Senior Asia Economist at UBP. With a view from Australia, is Toby Lawson, CEO at Statton Partners.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● PBOC surprises markets with off-schedule cut to MLF ● US economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected ● US tech selloff extends to Asia & Europe

25/07/2024

PETER’S BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Friday 26 July 2024, 06:00 Hong Kong

Quick Summary - 4 Things To Know Before Asian Markets Open

1. After keeping the medium-term lending facility (MLF) unchanged earlier this month, the PBOC surprised markets yesterday by suddenly cutting the MLF by 20bps. After lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate on Monday, and seeing banks lower their loan prime rates and deposit rates, the PBOC continued its easing with a 20 bps cut to the 1-year MLF rate, bringing the MLF down from 2.5% to 2.3% on Rmb200bn (US$27.5bn) of loans. Additionally, the PBOC also announced yesterday that it would reduce the collateral requirements for institutions drawing upon the MLF. Also on Thursday, China’s six biggest state-run banks cut time deposit rates by 20 bps across all maturities. It is the fourth time the big lenders have cut deposit rates in a concerted manner since late 2022, as policymakers seek to strike a balance between boosting the economy and preserving financial sector profits.

2. South Korea’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter on cooling consumer spending despite stronger exports, increasing expectations of an interest rate cut in October and odds rising of an earlier reduction in August. GDP in the April-June quarter shrank 0.2% from a quarter earlier in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the Bank of Korea, while analysts polled by Reuters forecast a 0.1% rise. This marks the sharpest contraction in six quarters, following 1.3% growth in the first quarter.

3. Economic activity in the US was considerably stronger than expected during the second quarter, according to an initial estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department. Real GDP, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the April-through-June period, increased at a 2.8% annualised pace adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for growth of 2.1% following a 1.4% increase in the first quarter. Consumer spending helped propel the growth number higher, as did contributions from private inventory investment and non-residential fixed investment.

4. All the major Asia-Pacific stock markets closed sharply lower Thursday after shares on Wall Street slumped in the overnight session following disappointing second quarter earnings from Tesla and Alphabet. On Thursday in Asia, chip makers Renesas Electronics and Tokyo Electron in Japan and South Korea's SK Hynix were amongst the big fallers. Japan's Nikkei index led the declines in Asia as it slumped by 3.3% to its lowest level since April. It was the seventh day of losses for the Nikkei 225. The broad based Topix index of Japanese stocks, which had rallied to an all-time high this month, fell 3.0%, its biggest one day fall since September 2021. The decline wiped out its gains for July and the index settled at its lowest level since June 17.

On Friday’s “Peter Lewis’ Money Talk” podcast, I’ll be joined by Francis Lun, the CEO of GEO Securities, and Carlos Casanova, Senior Asia Economist at UBP. With a view from Australia, is Toby Lawson, CEO at Statton Partners.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● PBOC surprises markets with off-schedule cut to MLF ● South Korea’s economy unexpectedly shrinks in Q2 ● US tech selloff extends to Asia & Europe

25/07/2024

PETER LEWIS' MONEY TALK - Thursday 25 July 2024

On Thursday's Money Talk,

● Eurozone business activity slows sharply
● Yen extends gains ahead of BoJ meeting
● US stock markets suffer worse day since 2022 as earnings disappoint

with Andrew Freris, the CEO of Ecognosis Advisory, and Samuel Faveur, Chief Executive Officer at Mandarin Capital. With a view from Taiwan is Ross Feingold, Director of Research, Caerus Consulting, Taiwan.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● Eurozone business activity slows sharply ● Yen extends gains ahead of BoJ meeting ● US stock markets suffer worse day since 2022 as earnings disappoint

24/07/2024

PETER’S BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Thursday 25 July 2024, 06:00 Hong Kong

Quick Summary - 4 Things To Know Before Asian Markets Open

1. US technology stocks sank sharply on Wednesday after disappointing results from index heavyweights Tesla and Alphabet. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite posted their worst sessions since December 2022 and October 2022, respectively. Tesla sank 12.3%, the biggest fall since 2020, after profits fell 45% in the second quarter. The company has been forced to slash prices globally and offer discounts and incentives as it faces slowing sales and rising competition, especially in China

2. European companies are taking a hit from China’s slowdown, and their forward guidance suggests more trouble is coming for businesses heavily reliant on demand in the Asian economic giant. Hugo Boss, Burberry Group, Swatch, Richemont, ABB and Daimler Truck are among the high-profile names whose bottom line has been hurt by customers in China turning more cautious. LVMH joined the growing list late Tuesday, reporting that sales in the region that includes China dropped 14% in the second quarter.

3. The eurozone economy slowed sharply in July due to weaker than forecast growth in services and deeper declines in manufacturing, according to the latest PMI survey. The S&P Eurozone PMI signalled a near-stagnation of the eurozone private sector, as its composite index fell to a five-month low of 50.1, only slightly above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading was weaker than forecast by economists polled by Reuters, who had expected a slight rise from 50.9 last month to 51.1. The data showed a continued divergence between a downturn in manufacturing and growth in the larger services sector. The manufacturing index dropped from 45.8 to 45.6, while services fell from 52.8 to 51.9.

4. US manufacturing was weaker than expected last month. The S&P Global flash Manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in July, unexpectedly slipping into contraction territory as new orders, production and inventories declined. Economists had forecast a reading of 51.5, according to Dow Jones. A reduced rate of employment growth also acted as a drag. The Services PMI rose to 56 in July 2024, the highest in 28 months, from 55.3 in June and above market expectations of 55, flash data showed. The Composite PMI rose to 55.0 in July 2024 from 54.8 in June, the highest since April 2022.

On Thursday’s “Peter Lewis’ Money Talk” podcast, I’ll be joined by Andrew Freris, the CEO of Ecognosis Advisory, and Samuel Faveur, Chief Executive Officer at Mandarin Capital. With a view from Taiwan is Ross Feingold, Director of Research, Caerus Consulting, Taiwan.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● Eurozone business activity slows sharply ● Yen extends gains ahead of BoJ meeting ● US markets suffer worse day since 2022 as earnings disappoint

24/07/2024

PETER LEWIS' MONEY TALK - Wednesday 24 July 2024

On Wednesday's Money Talk,

● India focuses on infrastructure & jobs in coalition’s first budget
● Kamala Harris wins enough support for Democratic nomination
● Mainland China’s CSI 300 leads Asian equities lower

with Enzio von Pfeil, capital preservation specialist at Financial Shield, and Simon Kavanagh, Partner at BDA Partners. With a view from Japan is Tokyo-based journalist and author, William Pesek.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● India focuses on infrastructure & jobs in coalition’s first budget ● Kamala Harris wins enough support for Democratic nomination ● Mainland China’s CSI 300 leads Asian equities lower

23/07/2024

PETER’S BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Wednesday 24 July 2024, 06:00 Hong Kong

Quick Summary - 4 Things To Know Before Asian Markets Open

1. Kamala Harris has secured the support of the majority of Democratic delegates, according to a survey by Associated Press (AP). Prominent Democratic elected officials, party leaders and political organisations quickly lined up behind Ms. Harris in the day after Joe Biden’s exit from the race and her campaign set a new 24-hour record for presidential donations on Monday. By Tuesday, Ms. Harris had the support of well more than the 1,976 delegates she’ll need to win on a first ballot, according to a tally by AP.

2. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new coalition government has announced billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure spending and a focus on job creation in Tuesday’s FY2025 budget. The finance minister mentioned a total of Rs2 trillion (US$24bn) of spending on employment generation programs. She also said she aimed to stimulate consumption by cutting taxes for e-commerce firms and reducing the customs duty on electronics and gold. But in a surprise move, she raised the country’s short- and long-term capital gains tax on profits from equity investments and stock derivatives for the first time in decades.

3. India’s Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex were both down around 0.1%, having sunk as much as 1.8% earlier in the day, following the announcement of the increase in short- and long-term capital gains tax. However, investors appeared to focus on the good things from the budget including a narrower fiscal deficit target, spending on infrastructure and boosting employment. Yields on 10-year government bonds fell to a two-year low on plans to cut borrowing levels. Gold stocks rallied after an unexpected cut in customs duty on gold to 6%.

4. Inflation in Singapore has hit the lowest level in nearly three years. Singapore’s consumer price index for June rose 2.4% year-on-year, beating Reuters’ expectations of a 2.7% increase. This compares to a 3.1% rise in May. The rate is the lowest since August 2021. The country’s core inflation, which strips out prices of accommodation and private transport, rose 2.9% year on year, slightly lower than Reuters’ estimates of 3% and below 3.1% in the prior period. It marked the lowest print since March 2022.

On Wednesday’s “Peter Lewis’ Money Talk” podcast, I’ll be joined by Enzio von Pfeil, capital preservation specialist at Financial Shield, and Simon Kavanagh, Partner at BDA Partners. With a view from Japan is Tokyo-based journalist and author, William Pesek.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● India focuses on infrastructure & jobs in coalition’s first budget ● Kamala Harris wins enough support for Democratic nomination ● Mainland China’s CSI 300 leads Asian equities lower

23/07/2024

PETER LEWIS' MONEY TALK - Tuesday 23 July 2024

On Tuesday's Money Talk,

● China cuts interest rates in bid to prop up lagging economic growth
● Narendra Modi faces budget demands from ‘kingmaker’ allies
● ‘Trump Trade’ fades after Biden pulls out of US presidential race

with Mark Michelson, Chairman of the Asia CEO Forum at IMA Asia, David Roche, President & Global Strategist at Quantum Strategy, and from Texas, USA, Tony Nash, the Founder of Complete Intelligence.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● China cuts interest rates in bid to prop up lagging economic growth ● Narendra Modi faces budget demands from ‘kingmaker’ allies ● ‘Trump Trade’ fades after Biden pulls out of US presidential race

22/07/2024

PETER’S BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Tuesday 23 July 2024, 06:00 Hong Kong

Quick Summary - 4 Things To Know Before Asian Markets Open

1. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) unexpectedly cut key lending rates to new record lows during July's fixing on Monday to support the weak economic recovery. The 1-year loan prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was reduced by 10 bps to 3.35%, while the 5-year rate, a reference for property mortgages, was trimmed by 10 bps to 3.85%. Monday's moves marked the first change in rates since February. Additionally, the central bank conducted a 58.2 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation and lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps to 1.7% from 1.8%. The PBoC on Monday also lowered rates on the so-called standing lending facility, loans made to banks in need of short-term cash, by 0.1 percentage point across all maturities.

2. China has released the full text of the “Decisions” approved by the Central Committee at the Third Plenum, held from Monday to Thursday last week. The Decisions lay out over 300 reform measures to be achieved by 2029, covering everything from economic policy, national security, governance, culture, social issues, and beyond. The measures will try to make the economy more efficient while seeking to direct resources toward strategic goals. The overarching themes that inform much of the Decisions include strengthening economic resilience against ever-growing pressure from an increasingly hostile West, and to that end, developing critical technologies and securing supply chains.

3. India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her FY2025 budget in parliament today. This will be the first full budget since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party was re-elected to a historic third term in June but unexpectedly lost its parliamentary majority, forcing the prime minister to depend on two regional “kingmakers” to see off a resurgent opposition. His allies, the Telugu Desam party from southern Andhra Pradesh and Janata Dal (United) in northern Bihar, are demanding billions of dollars in financing for their states in today’s budget.

4. The ‘Trump Trade’ showed signs of slipping Monday after Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign Sunday. Growing confidence in a win for former president Donald Trump, had in recent weeks boosted haven assets including gold and bitcoin as traders priced in a higher chance of crypto-friendly policies, rising geopolitical tensions and stronger US inflation. Shares of battery and battery-related firms fell Monday as Mr. Biden’s withdrawal from the race raised uncertainties about US climate-related policies, including those affecting electric vehicles. Other elements of the Trump Trade, including rising US bond yields, a steeper yield curve, a lower Mexican peso and gains in financials and energy stocks, were mixed Monday as Mr. Trump’s odds of winning dropped to 61% from as high as 69% last week, according to betting site PredictIt.

On Tuesday’s “Peter Lewis’ Money Talk” podcast, I’ll be joined by Mark Michelson, Chairman of the Asia CEO Forum at IMA Asia, David Roche, President & Global Strategist at Independent Strategy, and from Texas, USA, Tony Nash, the Founder of Complete Intelligence.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● China cuts interest rates in bid to prop up lagging economic growth ● Narendra Modi faces budget demands from ‘kingmaker’ allies ● ‘Trump Trade’ fades after Biden pulls out of US presidential race

22/07/2024

PETER LEWIS' MONEY TALK - Monday 22 July 2024

On Monday's Money Talk,

● Joe Biden drops out of US presidential race
● Businesses across the world hit by ‘largest IT outage in history’
● Chinese official calls for ‘proactive’ stimulus to boost economy

with Alex Wong, director at Alex KY Wong Asset Management, and Peter Kim, Head of Global Investment Strategy at KB Financial Group in Seoul. Providing a view from Mainland China is Yanan Wu, the Chairman and CEO of Surfin Group.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● Joe Biden drops out of US presidential race ● Businesses across the world hit by ‘largest IT outage in history’ ● Chinese official calls for ‘proactive’ stimulus to boost economy

21/07/2024

PETER’S BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Monday 22 July 2024, 06:00 Hong Kong

Quick Summary - 4 Things To Know Before Asian Markets Open

1. President Joe Biden has withdrawn from the US presidential race after weeks of mounting pressure from Democrats. He says it's "in the best interest of my party and the country" but he will stay on for the final six months of his term. Mr. Biden endorsed Kamala Harris, his vice-president, to be the new Democratic nominee. Ms. Harris says she intends to "earn and win" the nomination and do "everything in my power to unite our nation to defeat Donald Trump".

2. Businesses and services around the world are slowly recovering after a massive IT outage affected computer systems for hours on Friday. Banks, hospitals and airlines were among the worst-hit after cyber-security firm Crowdstrike issued a faulty software update which affected Microsoft Windows. Australian security consultant Troy Hunt described it in a social media post as “the largest IT outage in history.” He said, “this is basically what we were all worried about with Y2K, except it’s actually happened this time.” The botched software update from CrowdStrike crashed countless Microsoft Windows computer systems all over the world, causing massive disruption to a vast range of services and operations, including airlines, hospitals, media companies and financial services groups, including the London Stock Exchange.

3. Beijing needs to implement more “proactive” stimulus measures to distribute growth more evenly among regions and industries, according to a senior Communist party official, as the world’s second-largest economy struggles to recover from a prolonged property slowdown. Han Wenxiu, deputy director in charge of the party’s financial and economic affairs, said on Friday that while the economy is “moving in a positive direction and making solid progress, on the other hand we are also confronted with some difficulties and challenges, which are mainly manifested in a lack of effective demand.” He said at a media briefing on the third plenum that ended on Thursday, “we need to introduce and implement more robust and effective macroeconomic policies. Proactive fiscal policy must be used to better effect.”

4. Data released Friday showed that Japan’s core inflation rate rose to 2.6% from 2.5%, accelerating for the second month to a three-month peak. Japan’s core inflation rate has now stood at or above 2% for over two years. However, the core inflation reading was lower than the 2.7% expected by a Reuters poll of economists. The latest core reading reinforced market expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates from current near-zero levels when it meets on July 30-31.

On Monday’s “Peter Lewis’ Money Talk” podcast, I’ll be joined by Alex Wong, director at Alex KY Wong Asset Management, and Peter Kim, Head of Global Investment Strategy at KB Financial Group in Seoul. Providing a view from Mainland China will be Yanan Wu, the Chairman and CEO of Surfin Group.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● Joe Biden drops out of US presidential race ● Businesses across the world hit by ‘largest IT outage in history’ ● Chinese official calls for ‘proactive’ stimulus to boost economy

19/07/2024

PETER LEWIS' MONEY TALK - Friday 19 July 2024

On Friday's Money Talk,

● China focuses on security at Third Plenum
● Trump VP pick Vance vows to protect American workers from China
● ECB leaves rates on hold, says domestic price pressures “still high”

with Francis Lun, the CEO of GEO Securities, and Marc Franklin, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager of Multi Asset Solutions at Manulife Investment. With a view from Australia, is Toby Lawson, CEO of Statton Partners.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● China focuses on security at Third Plenum ● Trump VP pick Vance vows to protect American workers from China ● ECB leaves rates on hold, says domestic price pressures “still high”

18/07/2024

PETER’S BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Friday 19 July 2024, 06:00 Hong Kong

Quick Summary - 4 Things To Know Before Asian Markets Open

1. China’s top leaders have given security the same level of importance as economic growth. As the Communist Party’s Central Committee concluded its Third Plenum, it warned of geopolitical risks, saying China should “lead global governance”. The leadership backed a vision for the country that pledges to balance economic development with security and encourage market mechanisms while maintaining order as they seek to create a “socialist modern power” by the middle of the century but without providing a detailed definition. Policymakers wrote in a communiqué from the meeting, “it is necessary to coordinate development and security, implement various measures to prevent and resolve risks in key areas such as real estate, local government debt and small and medium-sized financial institutions.”

2. Donald Trump’s vice-presidential pick JD Vance vowed in a primetime speech to protect American workers from China. In his speech, he criticised Wall Street and “cheap foreign goods” from China. On the third night of the Republican National Convention, he said, “together we will protect the wages of American workers and stop the Chinese Communist Party from building their middle class on the backs of American citizens.”

3. The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its main interest rate on hold at 3.75% yesterday, leaving the door open to a possible September cut despite concerns that geopolitical uncertainty and rapid wage rises will keep pushing up prices. The ECB governing council’s decision was in line with market expectations. “Monetary policy is keeping financing conditions restrictive. At the same time, domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated, and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year,” the Governing Council said in a statement. Eurozone headline inflation dipped to 2.5% in June from 2.6% previously, but the core print, excluding the volatile components of energy and food, came in above a consensus forecast, holding steady at 2.9%.

4. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported a 36% jump in net profit for the second quarter as demand for its chips surged due to the global AI boom. Net earnings in the three months to June 30 were NT$247.8bn (US$7.6bn), up from NT$181.8bn in the same period last year. The results, better than analysts’ expectations, were driven by a 40% increase in revenue for the quarter compared with a year earlier, outperforming its own guidance given three months ago. TSMC is the world’s main producer of advanced chips found in everything from smartphones to AI applications. Surging demand for advanced chips used in AI applications has boosted TSMC’s Taiwan-listed shares by nearly 70% so far this year.

On Friday’s “Peter Lewis’ Money Talk” podcast, I’ll be joined by Francis Lun, the CEO of GEO Securities, and Marc Franklin, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager of Multi Asset Solutions at Manulife Investment. With a view from Australia, is Toby Lawson, CEO of Statton Partners.

The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Studio and Spotify.

Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/show/7Lhinpp9qyGshENd0vCAnw

YouTube Studio
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnwqOJD9ie5gHH29bNfuG1Nscy8rdJo6O

Apple Podcasts
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk/id1677731892

● China focuses on security at Third Plenum ● Trump VP pick Vance vows to protect American workers from China ● ECB leaves rates on hold, says domestic price pressures “still high”

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