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Design By Accident Press

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Design By Accident Press

The page for Design By Accident Press, specialist publishers of scenario fiction and futures publications.

Design by Accident Press is a child born of frustration. In the past year, all of the publication outlets for futures work have become the slaves of the academics. There is no outlet for practical futures work. Design by Accident Press aims to fill that gap in the market. We have already published one work of scenario fiction, we are working on a further two, and we invite contributions from other

s who are frustrated by the present market structure. If you have a proposal for a work, we would be interested in looking at the proposal. Please contact us through our page initially, and we can take it from there.

14/03/2024

Is the United States in a period of malaise? If so, is it permanent? Could it represent the peak of American influence? If that is the case, what sort of world would arise from a post-American world order? In whose image would the new order emerge?

Is it time for the baton to pass on?

02/02/2024

What is the mechanism by which the rich get richer? Is it a feature that is built into society? How does the wealth pump work? By what means can the wealth pump be switched off? What is our recent experience of this? And what does it hold for our future?

How does the wealth pump work?

18/01/2024

Can we slow down global warming by refreezing the Arctic? Is it technically feasible? How? Can we do this at scale? Is this something we would want to do? What might be the impediments to doing this? What levels of international agreement are needed?

Is there a case for climate repair?

12/01/2024

Is there something about capitalism that connects with the human condition? What factors account for the endurance of capitalism as a system of human organisation? Is it our acquisitive nature? Or our desire to trade for a better situation? Or both?

Does it reflect the human condition?

04/01/2024

Forecasters were confident that 2023 would see a recession. It didn't happen. Why didn't it happen? Were there material changes to account for? Is there a problem with forecasting? Or do things act to make us look foolish? What does that mean for 2024?

Things are never quite what they seem.

21/12/2023

What trends could disrupt us in 2024? How do they interact? And what would the consequences be if they were to happen? How far are they visible now? And how much is obscured to us at present? If these are threats, how can we plan for them?

What should we keep an eye on in 2024?

14/12/2023

Why are nations falling behind in their climate commitments? Are the costs too high? Could it be that Net Zero is not a truly popular policy? If so, can a democracy achieve Net Zero? Can we only improve the climate by suspending democracy?

Is the environment too much an elite cause?

07/12/2023

Does it pay to go to university? If so, why are graduate salaries stagnant? If it doesn't, is the lure of the lifestyle that great? Should we be concerned? What does it mean for the current labour market? What could it mean to a future labour markets?

Does it pay to go to university?

30/11/2023

Is the BRI a means for China to project itself internationally? If so, what does it mean that the pace of growth of the BRI has slackened? Is this a change of course? Or does it mean that the BRI is running out of steam? What does it mean for the future?

Are concerns about China overblown?

02/11/2023

Why is there a common assumption of a future confrontation between China and the US over Taiwan? Would that be in the interest of China? What factors are constraining Chinese action? Could such a move have hazards for China? Would that make it wary?

Should Taiwan feel apprehensive?

26/10/2023

When could a ruling elite work for the public good? Who are the elite of today? How did they manage to gain that position? And does that serve all of us well? If we need reform, to where should we look for it? Can we envisage an alternative?

Are we running out of ‘good chaps’?

19/10/2023

What is the link between debt, inflation, and conflict? Does it follow that increased debt will lead to inflation? Does it then follow that inflation gives rise to conflict? If inflation has become entrenched, do we face conflict in the near future?

Does unrest come in cycles?

10/10/2023

Are we likely to experience a Sterling crisis in the near future? What are the long term pressures that would lead us to that event? What can we do about it in order to prevent it? Or is it beyond the capacity of politicians to avoid that fate?

Will the world turn its back on Britain?

03/10/2023

Just how cyclical are historical cycles? When one era feels like another, are they an exact match? Or do events differ in critical ways? Does the present time resemble the 1970s? In what way does it and doesn't it? What can we learn from that about the future?

Is it true that what goes around comes around?

26/09/2023

How much can a government achieve in a single term? What happens when long term problems manifest? Is the next government doomed to fail? What can it do to change this situation? Will a change in government mean more failure, only with a different label?

What headwinds could constrain the next government?

20/09/2023

If we are no longer path dependent and can have alternative versions of the past and present, then should we adjust the way in which we think about the future? If we remove our anchor to a fixed past, is that a way to unlock radically different futures?

What happens if we can avoid path dependency?

12/09/2023

How can we break free of the weight of the past? Must our future be tied down by what has previously happened? Could a consideration of alternative pasts be the key to different possibilities for today? Is that the key to transformational futures?

Is there a case against path dependency?

10/11/2022

This is Part 3 (of 3) of our notes and thoughts on our recent game about the future of the Arctic. Once played, what conclusions can we draw from the game? More to the point, does it indicate where we might better direct our attention? To another game?

On one level the game was quite inconclusive. The players didn't manage to achieve an accommodation. This showed how hard it is for sovereig...

09/11/2022

This is Part 2 (of 3) of our notes and thoughts on our most recent game about the future of the Arctic. It outlines the basic structure of the game and introduces the actors who were to play out the drama. Could the common good overcome self-interest?

The focus of the Green Arctic Game is to examine the possibility - or impossibility - of reaching an international consensus that the Arctic...

08/11/2022

This is Part 1 (of 3) of our notes and thoughts on our most recent game about the future of the Arctic. It outlines what we were planning to examine and what the critical uncertainties might be in 2050. Could we solve the tragedy of the commons in a game?

For much of human history the Arctic has been a closed environment. Historically, the region has contained some of the more extreme conditio...

04/11/2022

Could civil discord in American society degenerate into armed conflict? What is the pathway by which politics leads to civil war? How far has America travelled along that pathway? If the drift is towards civil war, could that trajectory be changed? How?

How extreme could polarisation become?

12/10/2022

How can we add the unexpected to a matrix game? Is there a way to include low probability and high impact events within a gaming structure? Does this need a random element? Could it alter the course of a game? If so, how reasonable would it be to do so?

One of the important uses of a matrix game is to help us to unfold a future narrative. Almost by definition, that narrative needs to cover a...

08/09/2022

What happens if we take the easy route out of our present difficulties? Is it possible that the long term consequences could be worse? If so, how can we deal with social imbalances? If there is a distributional struggle, what will determine who gets what?

Is there an easy way out of our current difficulties?

05/09/2022

Could a cyber-attack be a prelude to a physical attack? How do we handle the problem of attribution? When does a cyber-attack induce a military response? Has hybrid warfare clouded the issue? What about bumbling IT systems? Could we sleepwalk into war?

THE FUTURIAN #6

30/08/2022

Could it be possible for space to be de-militarised? Or are we likely to see the existing military infrastructure enhanced? What happens when space operations move from communication to offense? And when they become manned? Will we actually see Star Wars?

THE FUTURIAN #6

27/08/2022

What are the limits to economic forecasting? Is there a flaw in the way in which they are constructed? Can we adjust for those flaws? Can we identify them? How can we use forecasts to provide useful information? How can we make use of that information?

Does it pay to be normal?

22/08/2022

What does a business without staff look like? Can an organisation function with nothing more than a single laptop? Can we run a business from a mobile phone? If so, what does 'investment' mean in this context? How do we access these intangible returns?

THE FUTURIAN # 6

15/08/2022

Why is so much money being spent to develop the metaverse? Is it a new manifestation of surveillance capitalism? Or give impetus to platform capitalism? Does it mean that we are only an accumulation of data? Where does that leave our souls? Our humanity?

THE FUTURIAN #6

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