23/06/2025
Israel, Iran, and the Fire We Keep Lighting: A People’s View of War on the Brink
Preface: Not in Our Name—Again...
It always starts the same way. Talks break down. A “red line” is crossed. A missile is launched. The language is clean, professional, decisive. “Targeted.” “Proportional.” “Necessary.”
And then, the usual story unfolds. Flattened homes. Civilian dead. Markets in chaos. Fuel prices through the roof. Refugees with nowhere to go.
The people whose lives are shattered—whether they live in Tel Aviv or Tehran, Bradford or Birmingham—aren’t the ones pulling the triggers or drafting the demands. But they’re the ones who bear the cost.
We’ve heard it all before. “Surgical strikes.” “Regime containment.” “Defending democracy.” In Iraq. In Libya. In Syria. And always, the price is paid not by the powerful but by the poor.
This article doesn’t speak from Westminster, nor from war rooms or embassies. It speaks from the ground—from those who remember what these wars cost us, and who see them coming again.
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Paths to War: What an Iran–Israel Escalation Means for the Rest of Us
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🔴 SCENARIO 1: Iran Refuses Talks and Looks East
➤ Iran Responds, and the World Fractures
When Israel bombed nuclear facilities still under international inspection, Iran read it as proof that diplomacy was always a trap. So it responds—missiles into Israel, regional proxies activated, airbases struck.
Then comes the shift: Iran stops looking to the West and turns east. Russia and China offer military and diplomatic cover. North Korea sends signals too. A new alliance of convenience forms—against Western interventionism.
The West, in response, escalates. “Coalitions” form. More airstrikes. Possible boots on the ground.
For ordinary Iranians and Israelis, this means power cuts, school closures, trauma, fear. Bomb shelters and funerals. It’s always the same.
For working people in the UK and Europe, the war is not a headline—it’s a heating bill. It’s empty shelves. It’s fuel poverty in winter. It’s food costs that never come back down. It’s NATO leaders calling for unity while cutting public services at home.
And if the war widens, and shipping lanes close? Wages stagnate while arms manufacturers post record profits. Again.
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➤ Israel Strikes First, and Claims It Had No Choice
From inside Israel, the threat from Iran feels constant. Missiles. Militias. Nuclear ambition. So Israel acts first, striking Iranian facilities.
When Iran strikes back, the public is told this confirms the need for pre-emption. But the response doesn’t stop at one exchange; it spreads: Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq. A region on fire.
In Israel, everyday life halts. Civilians flee border towns. In Iran, hospitals overflow. Shops shutter. Normality evaporates.
In the UK, we’re told to stand with our allies. To prepare for higher energy prices, “in solidarity.” To tighten belts for a distant cause. To accept strikes, blackouts, and price hikes as the cost of democracy, even as wages are frozen and public services crumble.
They call it a necessary sacrifice. But it’s always the working class who gets handed the bill.
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🟢 SCENARIO 2: Iran Returns to the Table
➤ Iran Pulls Back, But Won’t Bow
Iran halts the missiles. It offers to talk—again. Not as a surrender, but as a challenge: If you want peace, start treating us as equals.
It demands acknowledgment of Israel’s nuclear weapons and a more balanced approach from Western powers.
There’s a sliver of hope. Talks resume. Conditions are tense, but at least the bombs stop, for now.
For people in the region, it’s a welcome pause. Families exhale. Students return to classrooms. Markets reopen. Hope reappears in cautious form.
For people in the UK, the pressure lifts slightly. Petrol stabilises. Inflation slows. But no one forgets how close it came—and how little control we had over it.
Still, even this fragile diplomacy is at risk. One false flag operation. One assassination. One act of sabotage. And we’re back to the brink.
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➤ Israel’s Pressure “Works” But the Peace is Thin
Israel says it forced Iran to negotiate. Western leaders claim deterrence brought results.
Behind the scenes, conditions tighten: longer inspection terms, missile limitations, and demands for regional withdrawal. Iran swallows some of it—for now.
But the groundwork for peace built on fear is shaky.
In Israel, people hope this is the end of the war clouds. In Iran, pride is wounded. Across Europe, governments ease pressure but make no promise to reinvest in the working class. The cost-of-living crisis doesn’t vanish—it just becomes more manageable.
People in Hull, Liverpool, and Glasgow still face rent hikes and NHS delays. Only now, they’re told it could have been worse.
We keep surviving crises we didn’t ask for. We’re rarely allowed to imagine something better.
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⚠ If It All Goes Wrong
All it takes is one wrong strike. One convoy misread. One missile misfired. And everything breaks open.
If even one nuclear weapon is used—anywhere, even as a “warning”—the world changes. Permanently.
We would see an explosion in global militarisation. Emergency sessions at the UN. Panic buying. Border closures. And here at home? A whole new level of fear. Food insecurity. Power rationing. Surveillance justified by security.
Ordinary people—from Manchester to Mashhad—would live under a permanent war economy.
But the rich would remain fine. They always do.
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Final Thought: War Always Starts With the Same Lie
They always tell us we’re defending freedom. That it’s about values. That it’s necessary. But the pattern never changes.
The bombs fall. The rich get richer. And the rest of us are told to stay quiet and carry on.
This time, we have to say no. Not because we’re naïve about the threats in the world but because we know who pays the price when bombs start falling. It’s the same people every time: the ordinary, the poor, the unprotected.
The people who never started the war but are always left to clean it up.
This war, if it comes, will not be in our name.
-Gary Lyon
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