Na Draki Pacific

04/03/2025

Not just the United States. And not just businesses. Weather and climate information is fundamental to any risk analysis of environmental, economic, and health impacts on our businesses, communities, infrastructure, and most importantly, people.

04/03/2025

With the approaching circulation around TC Alfred movin west toward the Sunshine Coast the strongest winds and heaviest rain will be in the southwest quadrant where the convergent air is greatest and the pressure gradient is strongest. This quadrant is on track to directly affect greater Brisbane city with destructive category 2 winds and heavy rain.

With luck it will continue to move east at a good pace, which will hopefully make the duration of the peak winds and rain as short as possible.

Reposted from the Weather IQ page who hold the rights to this image.

Modelling is showing a very powerful SW quadrant of Alfred developing prior to landfall. The forecast wind gusts within this area has kept rising over the course of the last 24hrs, with the EC modelling showing gusts of 80kts or about 150kph.

Yes storms have had winds speeds like that down there before, but certainly not spread over such a large area and certainly not for hours on end. It is very important that SEQ and NENSW make their cyclone preparations before Thursday.

Nitso has in depth Alfred updates, including a particular focus on SEQ. Get the best info available at https://weatheriq.com.au/sign-up?referrer=facebook

04/03/2025

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to make landfall close to the Sunshine Coast of south-east Queensland later tomorrow or early Friday. Check for updates on the BoM website.

Warning zone: Double Island Point in Queensland to Grafton in New South Wales, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Byron Bay and Ballina but not including Grafton.

28/02/2025

Somewhere a long way from Fiji...

The ski resort in Minamiuonuma City, Niigata Prefecture, Japan, currently boasts an impressive snow depth of 450 cm (14.8 ft) ❄️.

With more snowfall expected tomorrow and the following day, the total could reach an incredible 5 meters (16.4 ft) this season!

28/02/2025

February is probably the most active month of the year for tropical cyclone activity in the southern hemisphere. March is arguably busier, but only because there are 31 days in March and (usually) just 28 days in February.

Six tropical storms churned through the planet’s southern oceans in February 2025.

In the South Pacific, three storms were active at one point—an occurrence that is rare but not unheard of. Simultaneously, a trio of cyclones roiled in the neighboring Indian Ocean.

Five of the storms are visible in this NOAA-20 satellite image from Feb. 26. The image depicts infrared signals known as brightness temperature, which are useful for distinguishing cooler cloud structures (white and purple) from the warmer surface below (yellow and orange). The day before this image was acquired, a sixth storm, Tropical Cyclone Rae, was weakening east of the area shown here after bringing heavy rain to Fiji.

https://go.nasa.gov/43fOU10

28/02/2025

When your only response to an economic, social and environmental catastrophe such as climate change (and its self evident damage to societies) is to disconnect the warning system you have already built to protect human kind, you know that the lunatics are running the asylum.

Trimming the fat from excess government spending is one thing, hacking away the bone and muscle of our government institutions is just sheer madness.

Elon Musk is vandalizing America's greatest treasures

27/02/2025

TC Seru is likely to remain slow moving over sub-tropical waters south of Vanuatu for the weekend. In fact could track north a little over coming days as it is captured by an intensifying high pressure system near NZ which is preventing it moving poleward. This same high pressure is expected to keep the much stronger TC Alfred in the northern Tasman Sea for a while. TC Alfred is expected to intensify further over coming days, while TC Seru will remain a depression, below tropical cyclone strength.

24/02/2025

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1FAGokA7qA/

24/02/2025

The eye region is discernible on the radar imagery right now in the central Lau group. See the imagery in the link below.

23/02/2025

6am warning for Cat 2 TC Rae
============================

The cloud signature of Category 2 Tropical Cyclone RAE is not especially well organised, however the winds beneath the clouds are definitely cyclonic and already beginning to impact land areas of Fiji. At 6am this morning the centre of this tropical cyclone was located close to latitude 16.5S longitude 179.4W or about 95km north-northwest of Vanua Balavu and about 70km northeast of Taveuni. Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 50 knots (90km/hr) sustained, with momentary gusts to 70 knots (130km/hr). Winds are forecast to strengthen to Hurricane force 65 knots (120km/hr), gusting to 90 knots (170km/hr) later today. The central pressure is estimated to be 985 hPa. Tropical Cyclone RAE is forecast to move south-southwest at 15km/hr across the Lau group this morning.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR MOALA GROUP.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR VANUA BALAVU, TUVUCA, LAKEBA, MOCE, CICIA, NAYAU, MAGO, YACATA, KATAFAGA, ONEATA, VATOA, FULAGA, NAIRAI AND GAU.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF VANUA LEVU (CAKAUDROVE PROVINCE, EASTERN MACUATA AND SOUTHERN BUA), CIKOBIA, NAQELE LEVU, TAVEUNI, KORO, OVALAU AND ONO I LAU.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU [FROM TAILEVU NORTH THROUGH TO RA (RAKIRAKI UP TO TAVUA), YASAWA, MAMANUCA, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE FIJI GROUP.

Today: Refer to Special Weather Bulletins issued by Fiji Meteorological Service:

For Vanua Balavu, Tuvuca, Lakeba, Moce, Cicia, Nayau, Mago, Yacata, Katafaga, Oneata, Namuka I Lau, Kabara, Vatoa, Fulaga, Nairai and Gau - Expect strong southeasterly winds with wind speeds up to 100km/hr and gusts up to 140km/hr.. Periods of rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms. High seas.

For land areas of the Eastern parts of Vanua Levu (Cakaudrove Province, Eastern Macuata and Southern Bua), Cikobia, Naqele Levu, Taveuni, Koro, Ovalau and Ono I Lau - Expect southeasterly winds with wind speeds up to 65km/hr and gusts up to 90km/hr. Periods of rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms. Very rough to high seas.

For the Eastern and Southern parts of Viti Levu from Sigatoka through Suva to Tailevu North up to Rakiraki/Tavua, Yasawa, Mamanuca, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands - Expect Strong southeasterly with wind speeds up to 50km/hr and gusts up to 65km/hr. Occasional periods of rain, heavy at times and few thunderstorms.

For the Moala Group: Strong southeasterly with wind speeds up to 65km/hr and gusts up to 90km/hr, increasing to very destructive hurricane force winds with average speeds of 120km/hr and gusts to 170km/hr from this evening. Occasional to periods of rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms.

FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP Cloudy periods with some showers. Showers increasing to rain and becoming frequent and heavy with squally thunderstorms during the day today. Moderate to fresh southeast winds, gusty at times. Rough seas

Tomorrow: By 6am tomorrow morning the centre of Tropical Cyclone Ray is forecast to be close to or very near Ono i Lau, still a strong category two system as it moves increasingly rapidly southeast away from Fiji. By this time the weather will be improving as winds and rain both ease. Although skies will remain cloudy as a humid northwesterly airflow becomes established across the country. There is a second tropical disturbance to the northwest over waters east of Vanuatu which is predicted to intensify from tomorrow. IUt may become a named tropical cyclone later tomorrow but not for long as forecasts indicate that this system will stay well west of Fiji and closer to Vanuatu before weakening and dissipating later Wednesday to our distant southwest. It poses no threat to Fiji.

Outlook:
Weather improves further later in the week as the SPCZ settles over Fiji but becomes less active with no signs of any further activity in our region through to the end of the month. A few showers mainly afternoon and evening, possibly with thunder.

23/02/2025

The impacts of changing climate conditions have been exceptionally high in recent decades in all parts of the world which experience "Mediterranean" climates with mild wet winters and hot dry summers. As well as southern Europe, record fire numbers and overall losses have been observed in Australia, southwest USA, and recently affecting large parts of Canada and northern Europe. Sadly, the loss of lives in these fires has risen, significantly also.

A trifecta of fire-friendly climate conditions fueled the January 2025 fires around Los Angeles: back-to-back wet winters that boosted vegetation, a record-dry fall, and extremely strong Santa Ana winds. See the map for how drought helped set the stage.

Scientists widely agree that human-caused warming is generally making fires in California and the rest of the West larger and more severe. Figuring out how important long-term warming is to individual cool-season fires like the Eaton and Palisades Fires is a little more complicated.

Read more: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/weather-and-climate-influences-january-2025-fires-around-los-angeles

23/02/2025

The 2.30am Special Weather Bulletin number 8 for Category 2 Tropical Cyclone RAE has been issued by Fiji Meteorological Service RSMC TCC and is replicated in full below...

=================

Special Weather Bulletin Number 08 for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 2:31am on Monday the 24th of February 2025

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

Location: 15.7S 179.0W, 95km East of Cikobia or about 115km
East-northeast of Udu Point.
Status: Tropical Cyclone, expected to intensify into a Severe
tropical cyclone this evening.
Maximum Winds: 50 knots [90km/hr], gusting to 70 knots [130km/hr],
increasing to 65 knots [120km/hr], gusting to 90 knots [170km/hr] in
the evening today.
Central Pressure: 985 hPa.
Movement: South-southwest at about 15km/hr towards the Lau group.

Time of observation or analysis: 1200am Fiji Standard Time [FST].

FORECAST POSITION:

* 12hr or 1200pm on Monday : 17.5S 179.4W or 60km West-southwest
of Vanua Balavu or 30km North-northwest of Cicia. [Confidence: High]

* 24hr or 1200am on Tuesday : 19.4S 179.6W or 75km
East-southeast of Matuku or about 90km Southwest of Kabara.
[Confidence: High]

LIST OF ALL ACTIVE ALERTS OR WARNINGS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR MOALA GROUP.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR VANUA BALAVU, TUVUCA, LAKEBA, MOCE,
CICIA, NAYAU, MAGO, YACATA, KATAFAGA, ONEATA, NAMUKA-I-LAU, KABARA,
VATOA, FULAGA, NAIRAI AND GAU.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF VANUA LEVU
[CAKAUDROVE PROVINCE, EASTERN MACUATA AND SOUTHERN BUA], CIKOBIA,
NAQELE LEVU, TAVEUNI, KORO, OVALAU AND ONO I LAU.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU,
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU [FROM TAILEVU NORTH THROUGH
RA-RAKIRAKI UP TO TAVUA], YASAWA, MAMANUCA, KADAVU AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS.

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE FIJI GROUP.

SITUATION: TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [CATEGORY 2] LIES JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF VANUA LEVU. IT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY WHILE
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE LAU GROUP.

FORECAST:
For Vanua Balavu, Tuvuca, Lakeba, Moce, Cicia, Nayau, Mago, Yacata,
Katafaga, Oneata, Namuka I Lau, Kabara, Vatoa, Fulaga, Nairai and
Gau:
Expect strong southeasterly winds with wind speeds up to 100km/hr and
gusts up to 140km/hr.
Periods of rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms.
High seas.

For land areas of the Eastern parts of Vanua Levu [Cakaudrove
Province, Eastern Macuata and Southern Bua], Cikobia, Naqele Levu,
Taveuni, Koro, Ovalau and Ono I Lau:
Expect strong southeasterly winds with wind speeds up to 65km/hr and
gusts up to 90km/hr.
Periods of rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms.
Very rough to high seas.

For the Eastern and Northern parts of Viti Levu [from Sigatoka
through Suva to Tailevu North up to Rakiraki/Tavua], Yasawa,
Mamanuca, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands:
Strong southeasterly with wind speeds up to 50km/hr and gusts up to
65km/hr.
Occasional to periods of rain, heavy at times and few thunderstorms.

For the Moala Group:
Strong southeasterly with wind speeds up to 50km/hr and gusts up to
65km/hr, increasing to very destructive hurricane force winds with
average speeds of 120km/hr and gusts to 170km/hr from the evening
today.
Occasional to periods of rain, heavy at times and squally
thunderstorms.

FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP
Cloudy periods with some showers. Showers increasing to rain and
becoming frequent and heavy with squally thunderstorms during the day
today.
Moderate to fresh southeast winds, gusty at times. Rough seas

POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN:
- Localised flooding of susceptible communities, business and low
lying areas.
- Localised flooding of minor roads, iris crossing and bridges with
some disruption to traffic flow.
- Severe flooding of major rivers which could flood towns and
properties.
- Poor visibility for motorists and mariners.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION:
- Isolated to significant damage to houses of very light materials
and old galvanized iron roofs blown off.
- Possible disruption in communication network and power supply due
to damaged power lines.
- Trees/plants and crops damaged and downed.
- Few small trees can be broken and blocking roads with possible
disruption to traffic flow.
- Localised disruption of essential services.
- High risk of sea travel for all types of sea crafts.
- Coastal flooding of debris along low lying coastal areas possible
especially during high tides.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEA AND LAU WATERS.
A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR NORTHERN KORO SEA, NORTHERN VANUA
LEVU AND LAU WATERS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS.

FOR NORTHERN KORO SEA AND NORTHERN LAU WATERS:
EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 65 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 90 KNOTS FROM EVENING TODAY OVER
NORTHERN LAU WATERS.
HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS AND MAY BECOME PHENOMINAL IN THE EVENING TODAY
OVER NORTHERN LAU WATERS.

FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEA AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. WINDS
INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 90 KNOTS FROM EVENING TODAY.
HIGH TO TO VERY HIGH SEAS, BECOMING PHENOMENAL SEAS IN THE EVENING
TODAY.

FOR NORTHERN VANUA LEVU WATERS:
EXPECT STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS, 30 TO 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS.
HIGH SEAS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS.

POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF HEAVY FALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI FOR CYCLONE RAE WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 4:30AM TODAY OR EARLIER.

23/02/2025

🌀Sunday 23rd February 2025🌀

Tropical Disturbance TD09F, soon to be named Tropical Cyclone RAE (Category 1), is moving closer to Vanua Levu. As of noon, it was located 260 km north-northeast of Udu Point, moving south at 5-8 kph, with expected acceleration to 15 kph later today. The system is forecast to enter Fiji’s maritime waters later today and could be upgraded to a Category 1 cyclone by 6 PM or midnight. However, forecast models show some uncertainty in its exact path and intensity.

One model from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggests a stronger cyclone (Category 2) and possible landfall near the northeast tip of Vanua Levu, while the official track keeps it slightly to the east. Vanua Levu, Taveuni, northern Lau, and Lomaiviti remain the most at-risk areas, with the system later affecting central and southern Lau, east of Suva, and Kadavu. Southeastern Viti Levu may experience brief damaging gale-force winds tomorrow depending on the cyclone’s intensity.

Key Advisories:

Today: Those in the central, eastern, and northern divisions should follow Special Weather Bulletins. Gale warnings are in effect for most coastal waters, except for the western division, where a strong wind warning is in force.

Tomorrow: Northern, eastern, and central divisions should monitor official warnings. Western Fiji is expected to have little impact, with sunshine and high clouds over Viti Levu’s western half, Yasawa, and Mamanuca islands.

Residents in affected areas should prepare evacuation plans and stay updated with official forecasts.

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20/02/2025

🌀Friday 21st February 2025🌀

A developing tropical depression (TD08F) south of Samoa is intensifying and expected to become a tropical cyclone. However, it will not directly impact Fiji.

A new disturbance (likely TD09F) has emerged north of Fiji and is a direct threat. Currently located 250 km south-southwest of Rotuma, it is expected to strengthen and move southward toward Fiji over the next 24 to 48 hours.

There are three possible scenarios for its path, with the most likely being a Category 2 cyclone passing over Vanua Levu, near Labasa and Savusavu, before moving through Lomaiviti waters and across Moala/Totoya. Other possible paths include a direct hit on Viti Levu or a route through Lau Group.

Weather Forecast:
Today: Humid and unsettled with cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall, leading to flash flooding. Fresh to strong winds with gusts up to 65 kph.

Tomorrow: More showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the north and east, with continued flash flood risks. Winds strengthening over northern waters.

Outlook: A significant risk of a tropical cyclone making landfall on Sunday. Official warnings will be issued, and residents should prepare today and Saturday for potential impacts.

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19/02/2025

It's hard to over we emphasise how important this science is to the future generations of Pacific. Islanders. If you have an interest in agriculture and climate science, or if you're someone who enjoys the fruits and crops of our region, then please attend.

Join us for Ms Zina Bird's PhD Thesis Defence on the impact of climate change on local crops and food security in Malaita, Solomon Islands! 🌱

Date: Wednesday, 19 February 2025
Time: 10:30 AM FJT
Zoom Link: https://usp-fj.zoom.us/j/87803138533?pwd=SohdoiRG8nG37J1MSJuTiqC11KVX8K.1

Don't miss this insightful discussion on climate resilience and household nutrition!

19/02/2025

Happy 60th birthday to the first global satellite image.

60 years ago, the TIROS IX satellite provided the first photomosaic image of the world!

This image pieces together 450 individual photographs taken by the satellite, with landmass edges highlighted for clarity.

See how modern satellite technology has made a world of difference: www.bit.ly/3QCFG7P

19/02/2025

When very cold and dry air moves over slightly less cold and more moist water...