Canadian Prairie Storms

04/10/2023

Good News October Update
(Spoiler: its getting warm again after the rain, no real snow)
Fires are mostly out thanks to the rain and much more incoming. Especially for the BC coast and Vancouver Island, the long term GFS is suggesting insane amounts of rain and snow for the mountains. The first trace of snow can be expected on the prairies this week but only very briefly if at all anything but a couple melting flakes. Long term beyond the middle of October shows supercell activity has all vanished and snow is yet to arrive in any significant way.

Ref: http://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com/p/weather-data-links.html

14/09/2023

New blog post:
Canadian Prairie Storms: Severe Level Hail (last night) Maximum Smoke Incoming! https://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com/2023/09/severe-level-hail-maximum-smoke-incoming.html?spref=tw


Catch any severe weather last night? Post in the comments if you saw lightning or heard thunder, we did in Regina..

31/08/2023

Smoke briefly cleared out for a quick storm cloud view, however strong thunderstorms were hidden behind the smoke shield for the most part as I filmed from Wascana Lake (Regina, Saskatchewan) yesterday. Radar indicated storms just west of the city (Pense) but they kept rolling by northbound and wildfire smoke wrapped it up for me. September 9th continues to show potential. It not over yet!

31/08/2023

https://twitter.com/BadWeatherKyle/status/1697146343607996790?s=20
Kyle Brittain Weather continues to produce incredible storm imagery , this was posted early this morning from Calgary. Stunning skyline lightning strikes!

Who is all awake in Calgary now?

30/08/2023

Storm Day in Regina today!
Southeast Saskatchewan in the moderate risk zone for potentially strong thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Hoping this clears out the wildfire smoke, either way skycam will be up and the StormRangerBike will be filming. So far it's fire soup in the skies out here.

29/08/2023

Moderate Risk Supercells on Wednesday

Focus on weather events such as severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flooding and blizzards in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba.

29/08/2023

Here we go! Full moon on Windy Wednesday, ramping up supercell activity, read the latest blog post with images. It is not a forecast, its "play by play". Calling how it is coming off the computer screen. Since 2002. Storm Season is NOT OVER.

Focus on weather events such as severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flooding and blizzards in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba.

27/08/2023

New blog post. 2023 continues!
[Heads up for September 9th]

Focus on weather events such as severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flooding and blizzards in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba.

24/08/2023

Good Morning, everyone.

More Severe Weather is possible today across Southern Manitoba!

A cold front is pushing through today and with a moist and unstable airmass in place ahead of the front it will likely trigger severe storms later this afternoon and this evening.

This time, the main risk area will be across Eastern and Southeastern Manitoba.

Some storms may even be rotating today so once watches and warnings get issued please heed them and stay weather aware.

-Justin. 🤓

22/08/2023

Potential or not Wednesday
The hrrr seems to be coming in cold, then walks in the NAM Nest with hot soup, spilling it all over eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Again, who knows. If you know better than the computers please feel free to comment on the weather. Seems like storms are possible but when and where is going to be difficult to nail down.

Made a confusing blog post here:
☕🧐😅
https://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com/2023/08/hold-on-skstorm-next-lightning.html

Also, subscribe to our YouTube channel for a new Tiny Turtle video in process today with 60 photos in a slideshow.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNM_xJYc2VZDwrzeNuIst4Q

Welcome to Saskatchewan Storms and Wildlife Wonders! My name is Jared Mysko and I shoot a lot of timelapse videos of storm clouds, boots on the ground footag...

17/08/2023

The Next Big System
Thursday, August 17th, 2023
Today's Thunderstorm Outlook from ECCC, showing a large risk area from the foothills through Edmonton to Lloydminster, Alberta. Up to 100km/hr wind gust and 4cm hail are possible. A tornado risk is low along the foothills from over the mountains in BC, later into the evening and overnight in west central Alberta.
Extreme heat is expected to push east into Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Friday. Depending on the timing, the short term forecast showing Regina hitting 97F/35C at 2pm while the high resolution mid-term forecast saying Brandon, Manitoba will get the big time heat wave.
Either way, there is a big system coming over the mountains which will affect everyone on the Canadian Prairies over the next few days. Expect a lot of wind, heat waves and storms to follow through the weekend until Sunday as it exits Manitoba. Good thing is, the rain should help knock down a few fires however with record ocean temperatures this summer, we should keep our A/C's up a few more weeks. Might stay hot with supercell thunderstorms much later this summer. As always, the weather is constantly changing, feel free to check the latest observations, radar, lightning, smoke and forecast models at our weather data links page:
https://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com/p/weather-data-links.html

11/08/2023

EPIC

A little colour to end my storm chasing day yesterday

11/08/2023

PREVIEW VIDEO
Sun Is Up - Inna [Audio ON]
Storm Timelapse / August 10th, 2023
Wascana Lake, Saskatchewan
[Full Version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4UpvK4s8kU ]

10/08/2023

Storm Day Thursday, August 10th, 2023
[Technical discussion with images can be seen on the blog]
https://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com/
Expecting strong storms this afternoon and evening in southern Saskatchewan. More wind in the west, more rain to the east with a risk a tornado in extreme southeast Saskatchewan (yellow area). More likely danger will be flash flooding. Tornadoes are highly unlikely with this one, much more rain than wind however a non-zero chance. Large hail will also be a bigger risk than any tornadoes.

NOTE: the city of Regina has been pulled from the yellow risk zone, as storm initiation is expected just to the east including Indian Head and White City.

09/08/2023

Moderate Risk Day 2 Thursday, August 10th, 2023
Be READY for tomorrow!
Technical discussion:
Two different scenarios featured by today's short and mid term forecast models. The hrrr shows more convection with storms over Regina, the NAM Nest is showing little to no convection for the city. Both models agree that the Estevan region will be in the DANGER ZONE from 4pm to at least 8pm. Regina might see more tornadic storms form later in the evening or overnight (7pm to 9pm and 1am). With experience of watching these patterns fold and unfold, our best guess is to put all of southern Saskatchewan on storm watch with southeastern areas ready to be on high alert in cast heat energy continues to over take the extreme humidity. Lack of ground water to the west will stir up winds, extreme humidity in the east may trigger tornadoes with this system.

Enjoy the weather, pray for rain and stay safe!

23/07/2023

23/7/23 Tornado Risk Today / Maximum Heat Monday

A non-zero tornado risk has been added for both Alberta and southern Saskatchewan today. Extra rain showers overnight and this morning plus clearing out of smoke is increasing the possibility of strong thunderstorms, if anything they will be very discrete (small yet powerful) . More likely is the heat wave on Monday, with up to 35C/95F as a high temperature by 5pm. Perfect time to defrost the refrigerator!

09/07/2023

Here is todays expanded outlook, NAM Nest is showing action in Saskatchewan, hrrr is calling for big time winds in southern Manitoba. Storms may be discrete, fast moving and tightly packed with a huge punch depending on how close you are. A few very tiny spots on the wind gust map are indicating wind gusts up to 73 knots / 135km/hr in the bright yellow to white spots on the blue map in the red circle. It actually looks like it hits Winnipeg and splits (between 5 and 6pm Manitoba Time) on the hrrr but nothing is suggesting that on current radar or the high resolution NAM Nest. Beware of the potential for high winds if driving along the number 1 highway in southern Manitoba. Stop and wait a few minutes for these storms to pass. They will be destructive as hell. ...
Model images and read more on the blog:

Focus on weather events such as severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flooding and blizzards in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba.

04/07/2023

Its official!
Strongest storm in Alberta in over 30 years, biggest storm of the year across the Canadian Prairies of 2023, so far...

NEW VIDEO of what we saw downstream of this, 650km east and 5 hours later: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mfoY4X7WR8

Investigation with Northern Tornadoes Project and Environment and Climate Change Canada - Weather has rated the July 1st 2023 tornado southeast of Didsbury, Alberta EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita scale, making it the highest-rated tornado in Alberta since Edmonton 1987.

02/07/2023

Wind gust danger early this evening as the strongest storm system of the year is beginning to rear its ugly head in southern Manitoba. This system produced a violent, public and damaging tornado event in Alberta in the afternoon and a top secret microburst or tornado north of Regina on Saturday evening. Eccccccccccc says its a high risk in southeastern areas of Manitoba. Echo tops show a discrete supercell that had popped up a little further west than expected. Again, those downstream of tornadic supercells are in grave danger. Take extreme precautions, watch the weather and stay safe! (We will process the secret footage tomorrow and post all the incredible highlights of this season in the coming days, boring weather ahead for at least the next two weeks)

01/07/2023

MONSTER TORNADO IN ALBERTA RIGHT NOW:

30/06/2023

Severe thunderstorms look fairly likely today or tomorrow for most of the Canadian Prairies. A strong system will track across Alberta and western Saskatchewan today and begin to bring some rain to eastern Saskatchewan on Saturday. Yesterday, Calgary got lit up with extreme lightning and downpours with hail. Forecast models are all wrong due to forest fire smoke so we should only use them as a rough guide. Saskatoon might have the biggest storm of the day this evening. Regina might have to wait until Saturday. Tornado risk is very low except for an area north of Cold Lake, Saturday evening. Most likely, heavy duty convective thundershowers today if you can get under the rain and past the heatwave. Oh ya, and its gonna be hot!

Note: Forest fire smoke is due to clear out so either way we spin it we are going to get it all wrong. 😅

Stay safe, eyes on the sky and enjoy the weather.
(Drink lots of water!)

29/06/2023

FRIDAY NIGHT NADOS / SATURDAY STORM INSANITY
Looks like June is going out with a bang, much like the way May ended but top of the season style. Expecting a tornado on Saturday evening according to early morning model snips, likely in south central Saskatchewan. Here is the outlook map for Day 2, Friday.

NEW: I have dumped all of the model snips onto a new public page on the blog for 2023, you can explore the research images any time at this link: https://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com/p/storm-snips.html (WARNING: heavy data load)

NOTES: Wildfire smoke will be a factor and may limit overall convection energy: https://firesmoke.ca/forecasts/current/
The full moon cycle is ramping up towards maximum lunar light: (currently at 83.2%) https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/phases/

20/06/2023

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVshwXPib9E
Boom Boom Pow / Lightning Downtown
June 18th, 2023 Regina, Saskatchewan

With music from the Black Eyed Peas, setting up the Bird Feeder Skycam for a big lightning show on June 18th, 2023. Lightning bursts were ongoing to the city...

20/06/2023

Maximum STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) hrrr 14z run valid at 5z Tuesday, June 20th, 2023. = 7.6 on a scale of 10 (100% PDS)


Most extreme tornado danger of the year so far, looking like most of southern Manitoba will be in danger zones, especially after 5pm today. Environment Canada has issued a High Risk. Storm chasers are at the ready, some already having had a taste in the Brandon area with multiple tornado warnings late last night. Storm cells are expected to clear out this morning and re-fire at around 4 to 5pm.

A Tornado Outbreak is imminent, if in the high risk zone, it is recommend to water everything and prepare for shelter. Gather loose items... take every tornado safety measure in the book. Keep an eye on the sky, radar and live lightning maps. Clear out storm drains, be prepared for flash flooding, large hail, damaging winds and flying debris. Charge all devices and fill extra water bottles.

Be prepared, stay safe and..
"GET SOME PICTURES DAVE!!" - Famous Reed Timmer Manitoba quote

12/06/2023

Severe thunderstorm watches have been issued for western Saskatchewan including Saskatoon and North Battleford as of 4:30pm SST. Small, slow moving supercellular thunderstorms have popped up and will continue to grow over the next 3 days with the main cold front passing through southeastern Saskatchewan on Wednesday evening. Tornado risk is very low to zero today, with a slightly higher risk on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Check local forecast and WeatherCAN app for alerts.
Weather Data Links:
http://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com/p/weather-data-links.html

Video is from our last storm system that went by Regina on June 6th, 2023, looking forward to shooting more timelapse on Tuesday or Wednesday depending on how things pan out. We will issue a full update to the next system tomorrow morning.
Mostly with a bit of potential as well ..

31/05/2023

Incredible tornado this afternoon in central Alberta, expecting this system to progress towards southwest Saskatchewan overnight and into Thursday, then over to southeast Saskatchewan on Friday.
https://twitter.com/KyleBrittainWX/status/1664043444808056833?s=20

Expecting tomorrow's moderate risk to be upgraded to high with this confirmed tornado. It is no longer potential, it is now actually happening!

Data links:
http://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com/p/weather-data-links.html

“Unbelievable tornado NE of Stettler this afternoon! Has now lifted at 455PM.”

28/05/2023

Getting some lightning and heavy rain so far. 8:35pm

23/05/2023

Day 2 Outlook for Wednesday, May 24, 2023.
High Risk area includes tornado 🌪️
Target Area: Old Wives Lake
Skew-T showing tornado signature 6 to 8pm
(forest fire smoke may affect forecasts by suppressing storm energy and pushing it further forward in time, so maybe later and further east)

22/05/2023

Happy Monday, May 22, 2023!

HERE IT COMES!!!
Strong thunderstorms with supercell indicators, large hail and a slight risk of tornadoes begin this afternoon in southern Alberta and will cross Saskatchewan over the next couple days.
(keep in mind forest fire smoke may suppress storm energy which could change things dramatically)

19/05/2023

As the smoke clears out of southern areas of Saskatchewan with a shift to storm relative southeast winds, a new system begins its approach. Convective action (weak) is expected to appear this afternoon and evening across southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. Latest forecast model runs are pushing initiation later in the day which is pushing things further east and later. Saturday morning, thunderstorms with a weak tornado risk will cross through southeast Saskatchewan from 6am to 10am and eventually run out of steam towards North Dakota.

Looking forward to Monday, a much stronger effort looks likely to affect southeast Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba with the supercell index showing widespread coverage. All of this hinges upon the coverage of forest fire smoke. Hopefully the coming waves of precipitation will knock down the fires and allow for regeneration of the environment.

The will NOT be chasing Saturday morning, looking forward to better opportunities on Monday afternoon and evening.

Stay safe, water your gardens, sweep the salt dust away, remove dry and dead branches, enjoy the weather and keep comments intelligent and helpful. Thanks!

13/05/2023

Nebraska, May 12, 2023:
"HOLD ON... HOLD ON.. WERE IN A TORNADO!!!! WOOOOOOOO!!!!" - Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist

With 24 tornadoes yesterday and another 30 and rising today (NWS), peak Tornado Season is verifying with historic footage flying in. This wedge tornado was filmed from multiple angles including drone, showing Reed and Team Dominator driving right into the chaos! Storm Chaser Jordan Hall has a sneak peak at the drone footage here: https://twitter.com/JordanHallWX/status/1657154798448173058?s=20

11/05/2023

Winnipeg is getting LIT UP this evening. This is more like a summer type storm according to echo tops, very powerful. Please be safe and pay close attention to your local alerts. Quick check of shows a ton of hail coming down in the city of Winnipeg with this storm.

Feel free to post what you see or hear including thunder in comments. The next wave of storms is expected to be from May 17th to May 23rd according to most runs of the GFS forecast model.
Links to radar and alerts and the live lightning map:
http://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com/p/weather-data-links.html

09/05/2023

Today's thunderstorm risk is going to be in southwest Saskatchewan this afternoon. Pop up spring type thundershowers will progress across southern Saskatchewan overnight towards southern Manitoba. The NAM Nest seems to suggest that the strong storms will stay south of the border until Wednesday. Hrrr is showing a complex of storms getting strongest in southeast Saskatchewan by 3pm Wednesday. Slow moving storm cells can produce tornadoes and the STP is very low but non-zero. It has been a wild spring in Tornado Alley this year so far and most marginal risk days have overproduced so this situation can not be ignored. Of note, the NAM Nest is saying the most dangerous looking cells will be in the south central areas of Manitoba including Winnipeg on Wednesday night. City of Regina should miss most of the action, possibly weak thunder poppers at noon Tuesday and Wednesday, more likely 6am Wednesday.
[Photos]
We have had a growing swarm of bugs by the Broad Street Bridge over Wascana Lake and thick fog this morning in downtown Regina.

Watch for on-location updates and a possible noon timelapse of convection today.

Track the bike on Strava:
https://www.strava.com/athletes/2315419
Follow live on location:
Twitter

05/05/2023

The first supercell "situation" of 2023 starts Monday, May 15th in northern Alberta. According the the long term forecast, supercell composite activity begins on the evening of the 15th and progresses across to central Saskatchewan on the 16th and southeast Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba and the Dakotas, May 17th to 18th. (We will update this again as soon as the mid term models verify or the GFS sends out more exciting news)

Ahead of this, it looks like it is going to rain for most of next week in Regina. With Wascana Lake already quite full this much rain could cause some problems. Love the rain in spring, thankful to avoid a major drought, this rain will seed the prairies with storm fuel and hopefully bumper crops this year for farmers and gardeners!

Of course, as always please read to the end of the story. Everything can and will change over the weekend. It might get better or worse whatever your point of view. Enjoy the weather, be prepared for alerts, have fun and stay safe!

01/05/2023

The ice is now all gone from the lake as of April 30th, this footage is from April 27th, 2023 as the clouds broke open a few times to make it feel like +25C on the north side of Wascana dropping to 18C in just a few minutes. Shooting for about 45 minutes, the mount for the Motorola was loose so the Kestrel video is pretty messed up but with relevant footage. Not exactly the same time in the merged videos, however it is good practice and I hope to improve on this style of capturing the weather.

23/04/2023

We still have a big patch of snow in southeast Saskatchewan, this late in April which is quite unusual. Today's solar storm will hopefully help contribute to speeding up the melt of the last snow. Long term models seem to suggest little in the way of heat waves and more of the below normal temperatures. Luckily, we have finally reached an average low of 0C or above (on this day in Regina) and as the sunshine hours increase daily, we should start raking the leaves and preparing for actual spring.

In case you missed it, the April 19th blizzard walk video was posted on YouTube last week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92_o6N04TK4

18/04/2023

Winter Storm Watch Issued today for parts of southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba (check your WeatherCAN app for details) Wet and windy days ahead, most of the rabbits are keeping on the winter fur for a few more days. One brave gopher was spotted yesterday, staying low against brisk winds. Wascana Lake is slowly melting downstream into the creek as the lake area is still mostly ice. Stream flows and lake levels information links below:

Added and updated links for spring 2023 on our blog: http://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com/p/weather-data-links.html

Be sure to check out the new interactive radar and alerts map on ECCC's website: https://weather.gc.ca/index_e.html?layers=alert,radar

08/04/2023

Storm of Biblical Proportions April 8-10th, 2023

Heavy rain, freezing rain and heavy snow will carve across the Rocky Mountains this weekend with winds reaching a maximum gust of 138km/hr off the Alberta Foothills Sunday night including northern Montana (80mph). For southern Saskatchewan, Montana and the western Dakotas, wind looks to disperse across the prairies giving us all a well deserved end to winter and a major heat wave to melt all the snow. Congratulations all who survived the Winter of 22/23 WE MADE IT!!!!

Note:
The first spots of Sig Tor index begin to show up today, increasing to interesting levels following the wind storm Monday evening. Vancouver, the Island and Lower Mainland could have a surprise tornado however Idaho and Montana will have the highest of the low risk.

Don't forget to vote in the poll about Regina's crazy forecast and follow StormRangerBike on Twitter for on location and in depth coverage. Now, its time to open those frozen storm drains!