Tom Parkin / Data Shows

20/02/2025

NDP's Lisa Vezeau-Allen jumps into leader over incumbent PCs in Sault Ste. Marie as voters coalesce in wake of late and weak Liberal launch, according to new poll by EKOS Research and Impact Strategies.

NDP has shifted up 10 points since an early campaign poll as Liberal support drops eight points.

20/02/2025

Thunder Bay NDP candidates hold very slim leads over PCs in both seats, with PC voters less likely to say they will actually vote, according to new poll from EKOS Research and Impact Strategies

Both ridings may be decided by whose supporters turnout, with PC supporters less motivated to cast a ballot.

09/02/2025

Subscribe to my SubStack

Research. Analysis. Opinion. Click to read Data Shows, by Tom Parkin, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

06/02/2025

With no Ford name on York South-Weston signs or ballots, PCs facing NDP challenge, poll shows.

Doug Ford's nephew Michael Ford isn't running again and EKOS/Impact Strategies poll shows the NDP at 32%, just behind the PCs at 36%

NDP just four points behind in riding that never elected a PC until the Ford family name was put on the ballot.

06/02/2025

PC support in Sault Ste. Marie has tumbled from 47% in 2022 to 32% at the start of this campaign, according to a new EKOS/Impact Strategies poll

10,000 have recently lost health care access, pushing health care to top issue among 40%, and PCs face controversy over appointment of candidate who lives in Toronto and works for Doug Ford

EKOS/Impact Strategy poll shows PCs down to 32% with 40% naming health care as their top concern in community where 10,000 lost their primary healthcare provider.

04/02/2025

A cut to enrolment has created a teacher shortage in Ontario and many principals now report they are dealing with teacher gaps everyday

Many have had to tell special needs students to not come to school because the needed support isn’t available

Many school principals say lack of available teachers is a daily problem and many have had to tell a special needs student they can't come to school.

31/01/2025

Protecting jobs?

B.C.‘s economy created the most job opportunities in November and has had the highest or second highest job vacancy rate for 18 of the past 24 months

Ontario continues to lag, below the national average in 24 of the past 24 months

BC has had highest or second highest rate of job opportunities for 18 of past 24 months, while have-not Ontario has been below national average for 24 of 24.

30/01/2025

Canadian MAGA-oriented media gets low trust scores, well-earned by spreading misinformation

TV news and some print hold top tier trust, but they’re a fading news source, data shows

U.S. MAGA-aligned social media platforms are becoming our source of news — and misinformation

Canadian MAGA media's one-sided commentary and misinformation may be the top threat to Canada's sovereignty and economy.

29/01/2025

Doug Ford failed to build housing or check speculation, stoking housing prices to new highs until the market exploded, spreading economic damage

Ontario now has higher than national average unemployment, lower average wages and stalled retail sales

The damage from Ford's housing failure can be seen in lower retail sales, higher unemployment and slumping average wage -- while other provinces prosper.

28/01/2025

Doug Ford let housing market speculation go unchecked and the big run-up ended in a big melt-down

And since the melt-down started, Ontario retail sales haven’t recovered — though they’re at a new peak in the parts of Canada where Doug Ford isn’t premier

Ontario's consumer slump not happening where Doug Ford is not premier.

24/01/2025

Musk’s high-profile endorsement of the far-right AfD has handed the SPD and Greens a new issue and put the AfD on defence

In YouGov’s Wednesday poll, AfD and the CDU were trending down while the SPD and Greens climbed

American billionaire's endorsement fuels SPD and Green attacks on AfD while CDU caught between disliking Trump and wanting to cater to him.

23/01/2025

Ford PCs end a horrible housing year with a terrible housing month and growing homelessness

They hit just 39.6% of their Dec target, end year 75,000 units short

Meanwhile, housing construction roads ahead in other provinces

Doug Ford's PCs anxious to use Trump tariff panic as cover to avoid talk about an utter failure to meet their 2022 pledge to "get it done" on housing construction.

22/01/2025

Surprise! NDP BC has the lowest taxes on middle incomes, data shows

Workers earning up to $150,000 keep more of their pay in B.C. than Alberta, where conservatives tax low and middle income earners harder, and go easier on top incomes earners

Workers earning up to $150,000 keep more of their pay in B.C. than Alberta, where income tax rates go easier on highest incomes.

21/01/2025

Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie's plan for tax cuts with maximum benefit for millionaires and billionaires and nothing to lower-paid workers just drips of 1980s-style trickle-down economics

Feeling like a 1990s throwback, Crombie's tax plan gives nothing for people earning under $50,000 and maximum benefit to those already those living large.

21/01/2025

Mark Carney’s Edmonton launch ironically shows the problem of his repositioning in cities like Edmonton

With Liberals running third in Edmonton and across Western Canada, his gambit risks losing western liberal progressives to gain nothing as business liberals

He intended to signal business liberalism can win in Western Canada, but Edmonton’s voting dynamics shows it risks further losses.

16/01/2025

Smith runs interference for Trump, undermining Canada’s tariff deference plan

Smith seeking a side-deal with Trump, trading his carve-out of oil industry for her weakening Canada’s threat of retaliation

Premier Smith is seeking a side-deal with Trump in which he excludes oil from tariffs in exchange for her weakening Canada’s threat of retaliation.

15/01/2025

Trump may gave gone too far and handed Canada some leverage by linking his tariffs to a plan to force Canada’s annexation

Polls shows Trump’s own supporters overwhelmingly don’t want Canada to be forced into annexation

Annexing Canada through “economic force” a political misfire with Trump supporters, maybe handing Canada some leverage to stop the president-elect's tariff plan.

14/01/2025

Ford PCs’ housing failure costing the Ontario economy billions in lost investment, probably about $20B a year

Meanwhile, BC NDP shows proof of concept: smart use of provincial policy levers can spur billions of private investment into public priorities