03/04/2025
Canada's Hidden Crises: Is the Tariff Debate Distracting From Bigger Problems?
If you ask most Canadians what their number one concern is leading up to the April 28th federal election, they might say tariffs. We have every reason to be concerned. As a functional reminder, Americans would pay the tariffs their government sets on any imports. However, eventually, American businesses will be less likely to import from the north, which means fewer jobs, less disposable income, and the other problems that come from a dramatic and sustained hit to any economy. However, something Pierre Poilievre said yesterday really resonated with this writer, and I wanted to share it with you as well.
"Some Liberal supporters and lobbyists have asked why I keep talking about the cost of living, housing, crime, and about the Liberal drug crisis, instead of focusing exclusively on Donald Trump. I will not stop talking about these problems, which predate Donald Trump and which will outlast Donald Trump if we do not act to fix them."
Let's start with crime. We dug up the crime stats from Statistics Canada from 2013-2023. With the exception of 2020, where the crime rate dropped by nine percent, the rate has moved upwards every single year under the Liberals. It would be fair to say the public health restrictions and lockdowns helped curb crime in 2020. So far in this campaign, the Grits have been largely silent on crime and justice, while Poilievre continues to raise the issue whenever and wherever he can.
When it comes to drugs, StatsCan numbers don't show much past 2019. However, while the overall usage of drugs is up, it's between 1-2 percent between 2015-19. We all want to see that number go down, but where the crisis lies is with opioids. StatsCan shows 21 deaths per day from opioid usage from January to September (2024), which is high. If there is any positive we can take from this, it's that compared to the same time period in 2023, that's a decrease of 12% though. Opioid-related hospitalizations are also down 13% over the same period. It can't be denied that there is improvement; but it's not nearly enough and not coming fast enough. Unfortunately, Liberal Leader Mark Carney has also been largely silent on this topic, while he seemingly remains focused on the ongoing trade war.
I won't discuss the housing crisis in this article in any depth. Both leaders have spoken on the plain-as-day fact that it's extremely difficult, if not impossible, for buyers to get into their first home. This issue deserves its own piece.
Generally speaking, affordability can be best measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Once again, we can tie the sharpest increases in inflation to COVID policy impacts. Shutting down supply chains was bound to impact the price of goods, and it certainly did that. In 2022, the 12-month change in the CPI was never higher than 1.1 percent between March of 2020 and February of 2021. For the period between July of 2021 and February of 2023, that number was never below four percent. Since March of 2023 to February of this year, that number went to 3 percent or higher six times. With the supply chain getting back on track, there is still inflation, but it has cooled down. Poilievre has touched on this point more than Carney and more effectively. Yesterday, we saw Trump's tariff plan roll out, and with the exception of our aluminum, steel, and cars, Canada came out unscathed for the most part. Canadian voters will have to decide who deserves the credit for that small victory.
But mid election campaign, that leaves us at the Calm Conservative with some questions.
With the tariff issue substantially reduced, will Canadians and Candidates now focus more on domestic issues as opposed to international ones?
Ontario, BC, and Alberta are the three provinces affected the most by opioid usage, so will we see strategies and attention to this crisis now shift in those provinces?
How do you see the campaign playing out now that the tariff threat has cooled down, at least for now?