The Hubert Humphrey Herald

29/11/2022

"Biden Turns Towards 2024 as Country Contemplates his Record in Office and the New Record his Relection Could Represent."

In 2020 Joe Biden set a record becoming at the age of 77 the oldest candidate ever elected president and if he runs and is reelected in the 2024 presidential election he will set a new record.

All major polls give President Biden approval ratings in the low to mid 40s and there will be a new Republican majority in the House of Representatives on January 1st, 2023. Even though the Republicans will have a very narrow majority in the House and the Democrats will still control the U.S. Senate, the House Republicans are vowing to oppose all of Biden's agenda and launch investigations into the business dealings of his son that they claim has compromised President Biden's foreign policy decisions.

There is also speculation among many Democrats that a younger presidential candidate may elevate the Democrats chances of holding the White House and regaining the House of Representatives in 2024. If Biden runs again in 2024 he will take at least three major contenders out of the 2024 Democratic primaries. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Butijeg are part of Biden's administration and California Governor Gavin Newsom has stated that he won't challenge President Biden.

If Biden runs again in 2024 he may still face a challenge from someone younger in his party, likely emphasizing generational change and if Biden runs again he will likely be motivated by impeding Donald Trump from regaining the White House. Biden's decision may also be motivated by the national inflation rate which has been declining in recent months from its 40 year high of 9.1% but is still a disturbing 7.7%.

If Biden does not run again he may feel it's time for the country to move on from the bitter division of 2020 that a Biden, Trump rematch will likely evoke. If Biden does not seek relection all attention will quickly turn to Vice President Harris and California Governor Newsom as his likely successors.

24/11/2022

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07/11/2022

"U.S. Midterm Result Was No Bash of Biden or Joy with Joe."

On November 8th, 2022 the United States held its every two year midterm election in which all 435 Members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 member Senate as well as about 36 state Governor seats were up for election. The Democratic party with control of both houses of congress and the White House were more politically evaluated in this election than the Republicans. Historically in America the party controlling the White House and Congress tends to do badly in midterm elections and the Republicans need to gain only five House seats and one senate seat to attain majorities in both chambers of congress.

A November 6th MSNBC poll had the Democrats at 48% and the Republicans at 47%, however a Rasmussen poll had the Republicans at 48% and the Democrats at 43%. Many pro Republican conservatives claim MSNBC and CNN are liberal news networks that are bias towards the Democrats, while many liberal pro Democrats make the same claims against conservative networks and polling companies such as Fox news and Rasmussen. Voter turnout was record high for a midterm, which both sides believed would benefit them.

Based on the elections final result the MSNBC poll was the most accurate as both parties virtually tied in the national popular vote as the Democrats held the Senate with a possible pick up of one seat if they win the December 6th Georgia run off. The Democrats also gained two state governorships, while the Republicans appeared to have gained six to eight House seats with a few House races still pending. Although the GOP will gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives it will be with a very narrow majority as their hopes of gaining anywhere from 15 to 25 house seats as well as a Senate majority were not fulfilled.

The Republicans tried to make the election a referendum on Democratic President Joe Biden, whom they blame for a 40 year high 8.2% inflation rate, which had been at 1.7% when Biden assumed office in January of 2021. The GOP also claimed there is record crime in America due to open borders and a lack of support for the police as well as moral decay from transgender rights that Biden and the Democrats promote.

The Democrats claimed that they are responsible for a near 50 year low 3.7% unemployment rate that according to the U.S. Department of Labour has created over five million jobs since Biden assumed office. The Democrats also claim that they are fighting to preserve democracy, social programs, reproductive rights and support for Ukraine in their war against Russian aggression that make America great Republicans want to destroy.

Its widely believed that the party that benefited the most on November 8th was the one that had the most motivated voter base and that will impact the December 6th Georgia Senate runoff as well as the 2024 presidential election. It's also expected that the new Republican House majority will launch investigations against the Biden Administration and completely stall his domestic agenda over the next two years. Some Republicans have also called for a review of massive American aid to Ukraine and investigations into the U.S. Justice Department's sezure of documents at former U.S. President Donald Trump's home.

Perhaps the most paramount question that has become even more evident since the midterm vote is will the now 80 year old Joe Biden run for reelection. Based on Biden's unimpressive mid 40 something percent approval rating and his advancing age he probably should not run in 2024. However based on his party doing better than most parties do in midterms when they are controlling the White House perhaps Biden is electorally viable in 2024. Joe Biden's political future likely depends on whether the U.S. most recent inflation rate of 7.7 percent continues its downward trend and Biden maintains cautiously assertive posturing against Russia's war in Ukraine as well as Biden's own party believing that he can three peat for them political success in 2024.

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27/05/2022