11/13/2025
The Ukambani region, comprising Machakos, Kitui, and Makueni counties demonstrated strong opposition to William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in the August 2022 presidential election, despite his extensive pre-election campaign tours in the region.
Ruto made multiple high-profile campaign visits to the area,with very high attendance even in small markets. These efforts aimed to peel away support from Azimio la Umoja’s Raila Odinga, but yielded minimal gains, with Ruto securing only about 20% of valid votes in the entire region.
Ruto’s low turnout reflected a deep-rooted ethnic loyalty to Kamba son Kalonzo Musyoka, who had earlier endorsed Raila Odinga,overshadowing Ruto’s many tours and developmental promises.
Ruto’s ongoing development tour of Ukambani, where he is seen commissioning infrastructure and other projects mirrors his failed 2022 playbook but faces even steeper odds. The visits, framed as goodwill amid economic pressures, are widely viewed as electoral maneuvering. Critically, Kalonzo’s nomination as Wiper Party’s 2027 presidential flag-bearer solidifies Ukambani’s bloc as his personal fiefdom.
Ethnic voting patterns in Kenya prioritize “our son” in national contests; historical data shows Ukambani delivering 80-90% for Kalonzo-backed tickets since 2013. With Ruto’s approval ratings dipping, and without major Kamba defections to UDA, these tours risk alienating voters further, reinforcing perceptions of insincerity rather than building a lasting base for 2027.
Expect Ruto to hover below 10% in the region if Kalonzo becomes the opposition’s presidential candidate.
