05/19/2025
Below are reasons for Kalonzo Musyoka’s decline as a popular presidential candidate. It’s a combination of strategic missteps, political dynamics, and personal reputation.
1. Indecisiveness and Flip-Flopping.
Kalonzo has been widely criticized for inconsistent political decisions, earning a reputation for “flip-flopping.” For instance, in 2022, he initially declared his presidential candidacy, selected a running mate (Andrew Sunkuli), and submitted nomination papers, only to withdraw at the last moment to rejoin the Azimio coalition and support Raila Odinga. This pattern of vacillation has eroded public and political trust, painting him as lacking conviction or a “political killer instinct.”
2. Limited national appeal.
Kalonzo’s political base is primarily the Kamba community, which accounts for roughly two million voters, or less. While significant, this is insufficient for a national victory without broader coalitions. He struggles to consolidate support beyond Ukambani, lacking the “magnetic appeal” needed to attract diverse regions or ethnic groups. His campaigns have failed to project a unifying national vision, unlike competitors like Raila Odinga or William Ruto, who have built wider coalitions.
3. Coalition politics and subordination.
Kalonzo’s repeated decisions to shelve his presidential ambitions to support Raila Odinga (in 2013, 2017, and 2022) have diminished his stature as a standalone leader. While seen as selfless by some, this has frustrated supporters who view him as perpetually deferring his chance at the presidency. His 2022 exit from Azimio over being overlooked as Odinga’s running mate, followed by his return, further alienated his base, who felt he was undervalued by the coalition.
4. Electoral failures and technical setbacks.
Kalonzo’s 2007 presidential bid, where he garnered 9% of the vote, was seen as splitting the opposition vote, inadvertently aiding Mwai Kibaki’s victory. In 2022, his candidacy was derailed by a technicality when the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) barred him for failing to submit a supporter list in the required format, a blunder that highlighted organizational weaknesses. These incidents reinforced perceptions of him as an ineffective campaigner.
5. Emerging competition and generational shift.
By 2025, newer political figures like Fred Matiang’i and younger leaders appealing to Gen Z have overshadowed Kalonzo. His association with the “Moi era” and lack of enthusiasm from even his home base weaken his 2027 prospects. The rise of dynamic opposition figures and a youth-driven political wave demanding fresh leadership further marginalize him.
6. Missed opportunities for party building.
Despite leading the Wiper Democratic Movement, described as disciplined and united, Kalonzo has not capitalized on this to build a formidable national machine. Internal party squabbles and criticism from Ukambani leaders, have undermined his efforts to project strength. His focus on coalition negotiations rather than grassroots mobilization has limited his party’s growth.
Kenya’s presidency has historically favored candidates from the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities, sidelining leaders like Kalonzo from smaller ethnic groups. His calming temperament and reputation for integrity could be strengths in a less polarized context, but the current political landscape rewards aggressive, polarizing figures.
Kalonzo’s fall from favor reflects a mix of his own strategic errors, a narrow regional base, coalition dynamics, and a shifting political environment that prioritizes broader appeal and younger leadership. His 2027 bid, while still active, faces skepticism, with everyone now doubting his viability.