Sydney Weather Nerds

29/01/2025

Evening! A muggy old day, which will continue for the rest of this week. Some decent follow-up rainfall around of up to 10mm, but a few areas also missed out. Chance overnight of showers and a possible weak storm again, but it'll be moist.

Tomorrow much like today except the chances of activity are lower, mostly cloudy humid slop.

In the longer term, this sort of weather is going to persist into early Feb as the monsoon fires up north with a number of Tropical Lows and Cyclones around the place, with La Nina also aiding this by pumping in moisture from well out in the eastern Pacific. Classic February. No real rain events on models at this stage, but with tropical moisture & Lows being around, models could change very quickly.

Have a great evening!

28/01/2025

📆 MORNING FORECAST WEDNESDAY 29 JANUARY 2025 📆
Good morning, much cooler overnight with temps below what models forecast with 15-19°C, which is almost bang on average. The reason is drier air subsidence from yesterday's trough. Also, a sneaky early morning thundery shower for those in the South.

Today is a juxtaposition to yesterday, and here's why:
- yesterday's trough was a heat trough ie tropical moisture and air clashing with a colder air mass
- today's trough is a cooler trough, ie it's instability being generated from colder air aloft from the Southern Ocean creating a temp difference to the surface thereby causing air to rise etc
- Colder air is less explosive or dynamic then warmer air cause it doesn't hold as much water, which means storm fuel or CAPE and updrafts usually aren't as strong depending on surface moisture

The end result is we're more likely to see a Cloudband with embedded thundery showers then storms like yesterday.

**SYNOPTIC COMMENTARY**
2 troughs dominate Eastern Australia, with a heat trough over NE NSW /SE QLD and a cool trough to the south over Vic. A high in the Southern Ocean and in the NE Tasman are both feeding maritime air into both systems. As they move east, the high to the SW will bump out the troughs but maintain an onshore humid cooler flow until late in the weekend, when another heat trough will push east.

🩺Health & Safety Tips🩺
Air quality today is good
⚠️MODERATE⚠️ weather triggers for migraine, dust & pollen & arthritis

⛺Outdoor Activities⛺
☔️Rain Gear: ✅
🏖️Beach Gear: ❌
🔵🍼BLUE BOTTLES: HIGH
💨 Wind Advisory: moderate sw-se'erly winds tending gusty s-se'erly

28/01/2025

Ooops forgot to post this! Some awesome falls across the place, up to 100mm on the Northern Beaches. Only Camden & Penrith missed out. Richmond topped the official gauges with 65mm!

Tomorrow will be up to 20°C cooler in most places, with a humid cloudy day, and arvo showers & storms. Unlikely storms will be severe *at this stage* but we'll review in the morning.

28/01/2025

The crystal balls are out - it's time to take a peak into what-the-GO with the weather. Oh, and also have a chat & say hi.

28/01/2025

**UPDATED SEVERE STORM WARNING**

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 4:35 pm, severe thunderstorms likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding were detected near Parramatta, Terrey Hills, the Yengo National Park northwest of St Albans and Leppington. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to northeast. They are forecast to affect Engadine, Mona Vale and Ryde by 5:05 pm and Sutherland, the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Mangrove Mountain by 5:35 pm.

28/01/2025

**URGENT HEADS UP - MASSIVE HAIL HEADED FOR NORTHERN BEACHES**

3c = almost golf ball size!!! Anyone out that way send me pics/video!

28/01/2025

**SEVERE STORM WARNING ISSUED - MOST OF THE SYDNEY BASIN**

Weather Situation: Severe thunderstorms are developing in a moist and unstable airmass to the east of a trough inland and ahead of a southerly change tracking northwards along the coastline this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms will likely persist into the evening.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Sydney, Penrith, Parramatta and Campbelltown.

28/01/2025

28/01/2025

**SEVERE WEATHER WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL STRIP - EAST OF TERREY HILLS —> CBD —> HURSTVILLE —> SUTHERLAND —> ENGADINE**

Weather Situation: A vigorous southerly wind change will move northwards along the south coast during the morning and is expected to intensify about Wollongong and the Illawarra coast in the early afternoon, before extending along the Sydney and Central Coast in the late afternoon and early evening.

DAMAGING WINDS averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are likely along parts of the Illawarra, Sydney and Hunter coasts, including the Sydney enclosed waters, as the southerly change moves through during the afternoon and early evening.

Winds are expected to weaken below warning thresholds during the evening.

Severe thunderstorms are also possible over parts of Greater Sydney during the afternoon and early evening. A separate Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be issued if this occurs.

Locations which may be affected include Gosford, Sydney, Wollongong, The Entrance, Woy Woy and Bulli.

27/01/2025

📆 MORNING FORECAST TUESDAY 28 JANUARY 2025 📆
Good morning, milder overnight again with temperatures 18-21°C. Some great falls across the Basin yesterday, except for the west & south east.

🚨⚠️VERY HIGH⚠️🚨 dust & pollen allergy triggers today with potential for 'Thunder-Asthma'. Those at risk please take precautions

Today is another climatic Sydney hectic weather day. Hot to very hot, savage southerly buster with showers & possible severe storms. A few 'rules' for today :
* temps will very much depend on wind direction, and will quickly peak around mid arvo right before the change arrives, much like they did the other day
* more nw'erly = very hot with 41-43°C possible for most areas
* more northerly = high 30's only for most areas
* it'll be a dry wind/heat
* the change as forecast is likely between 3-4pm at this stage (but we'll update you through the day)
* storms if they form will likely be rapid & severe due to the force & strength of the change BUT timing will play a massive role. Earlier change = unlikely storms; later change = likely severe storms

**SYNOPTIC COMMENTARY**
A deep inland heat trough is being fed by a ridge of high pressure in the Tasman pumping moist maritime air onshore. Over the next few days the trough will move east, increasing temps & instability with a strong cool change today. Cooler, showery & possibly stormy weather will then accompany us through to the end of the weekend.

🩺Health & Safety Tips🩺
Air quality today is good
🚨⚠️VERY HIGH⚠️🚨 dust & pollen allergy triggers today inc Thunder-Asthma
⚠️MODERATE⚠️ weather triggers for migraine & arthritis

⛺Outdoor Activities⛺
☔️Rain Gear: ✅
🏖️Beach Gear: ✅
🔵🍼BLUE BOTTLES: HIGH
💨 Wind Advisory: moderate to gusty nw-n'erly winds tending strong southerly winds later
🚙Travel: drive to conditions are if storms develop

27/01/2025

Evening! Thanks to all who joined the LIVESTREAM, and watched with me in real-time this whole event play out.

In the end it ease another hectic Sydney arvo! Isolated showers & scattered storms, some severe to end our National public holiday. Rain between 1-19mm with up to 85km/h winds with today's storms.

Thank you all for the pics & vids! I'm slowly working my way through them all.

BUT - how about this gorg sunset of Shannon Pipers to round of the day!?

Tomorrow is going to be a STINKER - serious heat, before a possibly savage southerly buster around 3-4pm! More on that tomorrow morning! Enjoy the humidity tonight 🙃

27/01/2025

So much to catch up on - hope you're all safe!? Was a hectic drive. I'll try download some dash video. Meanwhile, I was cooking this during the LIVE 🤣🤣🤣😍

27/01/2025

**URGENT HEADS-UP FOR THOSE IN CAMPBELLTOWN --> SUTHERLAND --> SHIRE --> HURSTVILLE --> AIRPORT**

This storm currently has a very large hail core heading this way. We will try and update you as soon as possible but best make preps now!

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 6:40 pm, a severe thunderstorm likely to produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones was detected near Oakdale and Picton. This thunderstorm is moving towards the northeast. It is forecast to affect Camden, Campbelltown and Helensburgh by 7:10 pm and Sutherland, Horsley Park and Liverpool by 7:40 pm.

27/01/2025

**SEVERE STORM WARNING ISSUED**

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 4:15 pm, a severe thunderstorm likely to produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones was detected near Kenthurst and Schofields. This thunderstorm is slow moving. It is forecast to affect Dural by 4:45 pm and Hornsby, Baulkham Hills and Pennant Hills by 5:15 pm.

Weather Situation: A number of thunderstorms have formed along an arc extending from West Wyalong to Yass, Goulburn and north towards western Sydney. These storms have gradually increased in strength over the previous hours. A few of the stronger storms are capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and bursts of heavy rain.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Penrith, Parramatta, Bowral, Katoomba, Goulburn and Yass.

27/01/2025

**HEADS-UP** we have our first possible severe Storm east of Richmond & NW of Hornsby with 4cm observed on radar!! Storm is heading east rapidly towards Northern Beaches.

26/01/2025

📆 MORNING FORECAST MONDAY 27 JANUARY 2025 📆
Good morning, 'porridge-like' is the best way to describe last night, with a thick blanket of moisture trapped in the Sydney Basin by a layer of drier warmer air above it aka the Sydney inversion. This inversion prevents air being mixed, hence creating a sauce-pan effect and steaming us. Temps a suffocating 21-23°C

🚨⚠️VERY HIGH⚠️🚨 dust & pollen allergy triggers today with potential for 'Thunder-Asthma'. Those at risk please take precautions

Sultry is the best word to describe today. It's going to be very warm to hot, humid in the east drier in the west. There is the chance for storms today, mainly in the west & possibly severe. BUT, a few key rules on that:
- the drier air will delay or even prevent storms
- the trigger point for storm activity on the surface is 25.5°C
- BUT the CIN (convective inhibition) or CAP strength is 10°C
- this means surface temps need to get to 36°C before storms will trigger
- this temp will lower as the trough gets closer but it's still strong and also relies on timing (we all hate that word!)
- IF storms get firing, they will be high based due to the drier air, and explode quickly
- IF they get going they will be potentially severe & fairly lightning active
- IF they turn severe they won't be long lasting due to the drier surface air & poor shear

**SYNOPTIC COMMENTARY**
An approaching deep inland trough is being fed by a ridge of high pressure in the Tasman pumping moist maritime air onshore. Over the next few days the trough will move east, increasing temps & instability before a strong cool change late tomorrow. Cooler, showery weather will then accompany us through to the end of the weekend.

🩺Health & Safety Tips🩺
Air quality today is good
🚨⚠️VERY HIGH⚠️🚨 dust & pollen allergy triggers today inc Thunder-Asthma
⚠️MODERATE⚠️ weather triggers for migraine & arthritis

⛺Outdoor Activities⛺
☔️Rain Gear: ✅
🏖️Beach Gear: ✅ the
🔵🍼BLUE BOTTLES: HIGH
💨 Wind Advisory: moderate to galeforce e-ne'erly seabreeze
🚙Travel: no issues

26/01/2025

Afternoon! Hope you've had the best day! Muggy morning, threatening clouds at times with the odd light spit of rain. As soon as that ne'erly kicked in, the skies cleared with temps responding, peaking at a warm 31°C

Meet our new friend - Harry/Hermione humidity. They're going to join us for the next few months as we head into that torrid time in our climate, with that oppressive humidity & mould. Oh joy 🙃🫠🤣 Harry / Hermione will help in preparing for those days when even your sweat has sweat.

Tonight will give us a taste of a late Feb night, thanks to the high to the east pumping in humid ne'erly air, which is being squeeze by the approaching trough to our West.

Tomorrow does have the chance for storms, at this stage mainly in the west & late arvo. Check in with us tomorrow morning as we'll have an update on our chances.

Stay cool, those working tomorrow - THANK YOU ❤️❤️❤️❤️