13/01/2025
Beevornomics to start the day
Fox news is reporting that the Wildfire insurance exposure in California is $458 Billion Dollars
The FAIR insurance scheme only has $700M in cash on hand to pay out.
In that area that could be 14 houses š¤£
This has in my opinion Erie parallels with the Florida Housing Crash of 1926.
In that era there was a real estate bubble inflated by reckless speculation and easy credit, that burst as a result of a bad hurricane.
Property values plummeted, and banks drowned in defaulting loans.
Think about it. Rates were Kept so Low so Long that the Price of Real Estate went through the Roof. The problem is - Insurance Premiums had to follow to cover the Fire Risk on such valuable assets.
California in their Wisdom sort of Capped the Insurance Lifts. Problem was, the Private Insurers couldn't make any money so they dumped coverage for the Entire Market.
So California just set up Fair which is a budget set aside by all Californian Insurers to cover those that can't get coverage.
Problem is it was massively underfunded.
And here is the problem:
When properties canāt be insured (or the premiums become unaffordable), borrowers canāt get mortgages.
Demand for those homes drop.
Do you really think the Elite are going to want to live in a construction Zone for the Next 10 years?
This is going to be vicious on the Banks.
If homeowners walk away from scorched properties they canāt insure or sell, banks are stuck with near-worthless collateral.
Why this matters here to you:
the U.S. economy = 25% of global GDP.
financial markets underpin both banking and insurance. This crisis hits both hard
Underwriting for Insurance even here in Australia requires access to Capital.
If the Capital doesn't exist they'll have to Print it. if they Print it there will be inflation.
Even worse the cost of money will increase for Australian Loans and Insurance too.
The economy is already on the ropes in China and Europe with Massive Debts held in USD.
Even Victoria has about $170B of debt of which $138B needs to be Refinanced in the next 5 Years.
Maybe that's why they're doing everything they. Can to Tank the AUD ?? lol
Make it cheaper for China to keep buying the resources in Nominal Terms.
U.S. mortgage defaults can ripple into Australian borrowing costs, exports, and growth and it can also affect valuations or many of the Bonds Australian Investors are insured in in their Superannuation.
Insurers exiting wildfire-prone areas could collapse mortgage-backed securities.
In summary it could:
Hit Australian super funds.
Hike interest rates.
Damage consumer confidence and exports.
This isn't financial advice, but it doesn't look great.
Also watch them use it as an Excuse to RePrice Insurance everywhere there is a Fire Risk.
Think about it.